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New Update: Market Bill Of Health

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    February 17, 2013

    The markets continue to display impressive strength with a bullish outlook for the short to long-term view. We have a broad-based rally where every sector is participating as well as every market cap. In fact, the broadest US index continues to hit an all-time high (chart link) which supports a bullish outlook on the market.

    S&P 500 Trend Strength
    summary
    * Note: Numbers reflect the percentage of members with rising moving averages, 200d MA is used for long term outlook, 50d MA is used for intermediate outlook, and 20d MA is used for short term outlook.

    S&P 500 Member Trend Strength

    Breaking out the 500 stocks within the S&P 500 into their respective sectors and viewing their long (200d SMA) and intermediate trends (50d SMA) shows the defensive sectors are surfacing as short-term leaders as they possess the strongest short-term breadth (% of members above their 20 day moving average). The most important section of the table below is the 200d SMA column which sheds light on the market’s long-term health. As seen in the far right column, 78% of stocks in the S&P 500 have rising long-term moving averages with all ten sectors in bullish territory.

    trend
    Source: Bloomberg

    Market Momentum

    The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) technical indicator is used to gauge the S&P 500’s momentum, on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis for short, intermediate, and long term momentum evaluation. Compared to last week, the percent of stocks within the S&P 500 with daily MACD BUY signals weakened from 48% to 43%.

    The intermediate momentum of the market remained steady at a strong 84% this week. Further evidence that there has been no dent in the markets longer-term outlook is the slight improvement with the percent of S&P 500 members with monthly MACD BUY signals increasing from 70% to 71%.

    In addition to the deterioration in the percent of S&P 500 members with daily MACD buy signals, the S&P 500 Index itself is on a daily sell signal, the first sell signal since the end of December.

    macd

    52-Week Highs and Lows Data

    We have a well-represented market rally as more than one fourth of the entire S&P 500 hit a 1-year high in the last five days. As seen below, we have a very robust market rally on our hands and there is very little red below. That said, we are seeing a shift in the sectors that are hitting new highs. Health care, consumer staples, and financials continue to be well represented but we have seen a drop off in the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, both considered cyclicals.

    52week table
    Source: Bloomberg

    Taking a historical look at 52-week highs and lows we see that 52-week lows remain absent while 52-week highs continue to remain strong. While we are becoming overbought and due for a pullback, I would expect any pullback to be mild in nature and unlike the two corrections in 2012 as we are not seeing the same degree of negative divergences in new 52-week highs now as we did leading up to those two tops.

    52 week with sp500
    Source: Bloomberg

    Summary

    The market continues to march higher in 2013 as the short-term to long-term trends and momentum for the S&P 500 remain bullish. The slight deterioration in the daily readings for MACD BUY signals as well deterioration in short-term trend strength in cyclicals suggests the market may cool off a bit ahead to help alleviate the market’s overbought condition. After a period of cooling off the market could possibly hit new highs as the intermediate and long term outlook for the markets continue to strengthen.

    Image: Flickr (licence attibution)

     

    About The Author – Chris Puplava, Financial Sense Online

    Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined PFS Group in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He manages PFS Group’s Precious Metals Managed Account, Energy Managed Account, and Aggressive Growth Managed Account. Chris also contributes articles and Market Observations to Financial Sense and co-authors In the Know—a weekly communication for Jim Puplava’s clients only—with other members of the trading staff. Chris enjoys the outdoors.
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