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February 2013 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Consumer Confidence Stuck At Recession Levels
    By on February 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index released today was based on data collected through February 14. The 69.6 reading was well above the consensus estimate of 62.0 reported by Briefing.com. Today’s number is major increase over January’s grim reading of 58.4 (a fracti...
  • Market No Longer Overbought. Now What?
    By on February 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    For some weeks now it’s been obvious and widely noted that the U.S. market and global markets were short-term overbought to a degree that made a pullback to alleviate that overbought condition likely. Last week’s weakness and the big sell-off yesterday have made considerable progress toward tak...
  • Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed
    By on February 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last few days I have been discussing a variety of different data points as they have been released concerning the current state of economic growth.  What is most concerning is the disconnect between the mainstream economist’s, and analyst’s, optimistic outlook which continues t...
  • Italy: Another Eurozone Stress Test?
    By on February 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The initial turmoil stemming from the Italian election comes at a bad time for Italy and Europe in general. With much of the continent in recession, the markets certainly won’t benefit in the near term from the potential domino effect of the clash between the forces of anti-austerity and the p...
  • New Update: Gauging Investor Sentiment With Twitter
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to paint lower highs over the past week. We’re seeing a pattern that shows traders have less enthusiasm on up days and more negativity on down days. Large percent up days are only getting neutral sentiment...
  • The Housing Recovery And Its Unsafe Foundations
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    What could go wrong with the housing ‘recovery’ in 2013? To answer this question, we need to understand that housing is the key component in household wealth. And, that Central Planning policies are aimed at creating a resurgent “wealth effect,” as follows: When people perceive their...
  • SPX Snapshot: Italian Election Torpedoes Market
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The US indexes rose at the open on optimism from Europe, with all eyes on the big vote in Italy. The benchmark S&P 500 hit its intraday high about 30 minutes into trading and then began pulling back as post-election concerns began circulating. The index appeared to stabilize later in the morning...
  • CIA World Factbook: The New Global Economic Numbers
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The CIA has some new 2011/2012 numbers for the world’s economy. These numbers are as “good” as the countries who post the individual data, so it’s safe to be suspect. That said, I found them interesting.   There’s 7B of us. I love the CIA’s precise estimate.     Only 47...
  • Technical Analysis Of The Silver Market
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Silver closed Friday`s trading session at $28.46 an ounce, capping off what has been an auspicious start to 2013. On January 23rd Silver was trading at $32 and has been in a downtrend ever since trying to find a support level that will hold. There is some real minor support at the $28 level, but no...
  • Technical Analysis Of The Natural Gas Market
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Natural Gas closed Friday at $3.35 per mmBtu and has been on a three month downtrend from the $4 level where it put in a near-term double top in October and November of 2012. This was your classic short setup, as NG bottomed in March of 2012 from the prolonged downtrend to test just how low prices c...
  • Chicago Board Leading Economic Index: Disconnect?
    By on February 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The data behind the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) index has been drastically revised twice in as many months which has led questions about the relative strength of the economy during that period.  The latest revised data shows a marked improvement over the data we were l...
  • Dow 20,000 Only A Matter Of Time?
    By on February 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    We are 200 points from breaking a new high in the Dow Industrials which got me looking back at assets over the last 25 years in relation to the value of the US Dollar Index and the overall money supply. 25 years in Markets   Some of the best performing assets are the stock market and gasoline ...
  • Market And Investing Wisdoms
    By on February 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently penned an article entitle ‘Visualizing Bob Farrell’s 10 Investment Rules‘ which covered some of the very basic primers of money management and being a successful investor over the long term.  However, Bob Farrell is only one of the many truly great investors of our tim...
  • How Long Can This Economic Sweet Spot Last?
    By on February 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Until recently, the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and meltdown has been in stealth mode all the way, much of the country either unaware of the progress – or in denial that it was happening. That’s even been true of investors, whose success depends so much on being able to separate ...
  • The Keynesian Depression
    By on February 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    In today’s Outside the Box, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Funds, regales us with the not-always-happy history of Keynesian economics – we did what he said when we had to, but not always when we should have. Shoving fiscal and monetary stimulus down the throat of a recessi...
  • ECRI Recession Update: Indicators Slip Again
    By on February 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped again in today’s update. It is now at 129.1 versus the previous week’s 129.7 (revised from 129.6). See the WLI chartin the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now ...

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