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Why The 4-Year Cycle Lows Will Be Late

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    January 5, 2013

    Calculating from the Four-Year Cycle low in 2009, the next cycle low is due in two months, but unless there is a major crash, that projection will not be realized. In fact, we can’t even say that there has been a cycle crest yet, although, given the proximity of current prices to the tops in 2000 and 2007, it is likely that a long-term top will be put in soon.

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    (This is an excerpt from recent blogs for Decision Point subscribers.)

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    Obviously, the Four-Year Cycle does not repeat at exact intervals — the last one lasted almost six years from trough to trough — and it appears that the current cycle is going to be extra long. A “normal” downside for the cycle is about 18 months, so an educated guess as to when the price low might hit is about mid-to-late-2014.

    Screen shot 2013-01-04 at 1.20.07 PM

    To summarize, the ten-year trading range of the S&P 500 Index suggests that a major price top should be arriving sometime in the first half of 2013, maybe within three months. After that the Four-Year Cycle low (price low) projection would be for the last half of 2014, unless the decline is exceptionally accelerated.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Carl SwenlinCarl Swenlin is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports. Mr. Swenlin is a Member of the Market Technicians Association.
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