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Gallup Poll: Private Sector Hiring Down Since April?

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    January 6, 2013

    Gallup reports U.S. Job Creation Steady in December, but hiring in the nongovernment job sector stalls.

    The following charts (trendlines added by me) reflect answers to Gallup’s question: Based on what you know or have seen, would you say that, in general, your company or employer is 1) hiring new people and expanding the size of its workforce, 2) not changing the size of its workforce, 3) letting people go and reducing the size of its workforce.

    Percentage of Employers Hiring Minus Those Letting Go

    click on any chart for sharper image

    The hiring momentum that began in early 2009 slowed in mid-2011. Momentum vanished (at best) in March or April of 2012.

    Slowdown in Hiring Since Mid-2011

    There appears to be even less momentum from this perspective. However, the first chart is simply a subtraction of the numbers in the second chart.

    Factor in Government Employment and Things Look Worse

    From this perspective, private hiring peaked in April of 2012 and has since been in a very slow decline.

    Meanwhile, states and local governments have been adding workers since the beginning of the year although it is highly doubtful they can afford such actions with private sector running at stall speed at best.

    Bear in mind, two things: First, the survey represents what people perceive to be happening at their employer. Actual hiring or firing may be different.

    Second, these charts only show direction not size. Thus, a small-sized company laying off a single person counts as much as a larger company that is hiring 40. Of course, the opposite is true as well  (a small-sized company hiring a single person counts as much as a large company firing 40).

    However, based on the randomness of the samples, there will be more calls to those working for large-sized companies than those working for small or medium-sized companies and most people are probably aware of what their company is doing.

    Mike “Mish” Shedlock



    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.  Visit Sitka Pacific’s Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

    You are currently viewing my global economics blog which typically has commentary every day of the week. I am also a contributing “professor” on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.  Every Thursday I do a podcast on HoweStreet and on an ad hoc basis contribute to many other sites.

    When not writing about stocks or the economy I spend a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com.