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Current Market Snapshot: Signs Of Exhaustion?

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    January 17, 2013

    Like yesterday, the S&P 500 fell at the open and hit its intraday low, off 0.32%, in the first 15 minutes of trading. The index zigzagged to a modest mid-afternoon intraday high, up 0.11%, before falling back into the red. The final hour of trading was a game of tag with the opening price. The index closed essentially flat, but in fact it set a new interim high, 0.02% above the previous interim high set yesterday.

    Here is a 5-minute chart of today’s action.

     

     

    What’s to make of this market? Here is a daily chart of SPY, the S&P 500′s ETF kissing cousin. Note the callout of the last five sessions, and check the vanishing volume. Symptoms of exhaustion?

     

     

    The S&P 500 is now up 3.26% for 2013 and at a new interim high.

    From a longer-term perspective, the index is 117.7% above the March 2009 closing low and 5.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

     

     

     

     

    For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view ofsecular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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