Logo Background RSS

Advertisement

January 2013 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • GDP: Digging Into The Unexpected Q4, 2012 Decline
    By on January 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The media was shocked as the 1st estimate of Q4 GDP dropped to a negative .01% growth rate.  This, of course, was “unexpected” by the consensus who had predicted an increase of 1.0%.  The good news is that this number will be revised up in the next couple of months due to the impact...
  • Will The Market Ever Correct?
    By on January 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    All in all, 2013 should provide for a much more robust development of the website to make sure that you are getting the information that you need to manage your money better. Here is the cool part.  All of these changes were spurred by you, our loyal members, who submitted comments, criticisms and ...
  • Why Market Rally Tells Us Nothing About Economy
    By on January 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Markets have had a good run from the third quarter earning`s selloff, the inevitable Santa Claus rally, and the first quarter new money being put to work. But all this talk about some Super Cycle turn in the economy is putting the proverbial cart ahead of the horse.   How quickly things can tur...
  • Update: Core Capex Recession Indicator
    By on January 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    A few months ago Business Insider posted a commentary with the attention-grabbing headline:DAVID ROSENBERG: Here’s Your Big Red Flag That We Could Be Heading For Recession. Rosenberg has frequently included CAPEX among his various recession indicators, but he focuses on a specific manipulati...
  • When Pension Funds Become Hedge Funds…
    By on January 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Running a pension fund used to be one of the easier jobs in finance. The money came in steadily and predictably from member contributions, and you invested it conservatively (in investment grade bonds and blue chip stocks) to meet a modest annual return target of around 8%. It was cook-book money ma...
  • Why Employment Is ‘Dead In The Water’
    By on January 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Employment is dead in the water because opportunities for organic expansion are few and the cost basis of doing business in the U.S. keeps rising. Let’s start by reviewing the basics of employment in the U.S. Courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, here is the noninstitutional civilian pop...
  • Is The Consumer Deleveraging Or Not?
    By on January 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week my friend Cullen Roche at PragCap (a daily must read site as I have stated before) posted an excellent piece by Richard Koo discussing the “balance sheet recession.” Cullen’s accompanying points are critical to understanding where we are in the current credit cycle a...
  • Overbought Markets Have Everyone’s Attention
    By on January 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    After being up 11 of the last 12 days, everyone seems to be aware of the short-term overbought condition above 50-day moving averages. As I’ve been noting, it’s not just the U.S. market, but global markets in general, all tracking together in a typical favorable season rally. But does everyone b...
  • What Wall Street Doesn’t Understand About Apple
    By on January 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    I was going to name this piece ‘Why Sell Side Wall Street and the Mainstream Media Can’t Touch Me‘, but I decided to go the humble route 🙂 Do you guys remember those highly paid Wall Street analysts and popular MSM guys who had $1,000+ price targets on Apple just a few months ...
  • High Stock Complacency
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets have been surging in one heck of a January rally.  The combination of the fiscal-cliff tax deal and generally solid Q4 earnings have propelled stocks to their best levels in 5 years.  But these gains have been accompanied by stellar complacency.  Traders are extremely bulli...
  • The Market’s History of Seasonality Continues!
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Once again the stock market’s favorable season is producing an impressive rally. The Dow has gained more than 10% since its November low, with the rally accelerating in the new year, a 7% gain in just the last 4 weeks. There are certainly reasons for optimism and the market rally. As it has for th...
  • Yen, Apple, Netflix and VIX
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Let`s start with the Yen Carry trade, where do you think the juice came from for that S&P ride above 1500? Gee, somebody was sure waiting for a pullback to get in on that trade. Frankly, it was a rather tepid reaction to the major disappointment by the BOJ, but traders really want to move assets...
  • Recession Update: ECRI Leading Index Hits New Highs
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.6 versus the previous week’s 130.4. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 7.2, up from last we...
  • The Road To Debt Serfdom
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Ours is a dysfunctional debt-based Empire that buys the complicity of its debt-serfs with entitlement bread and circuses. The road to debt-serfdom is paved by the banks and enforced by the Central State.If there is any point that is lost on ideologues, Progressive and Conservative alike, it is this:...
  • Visualizing The Euphoria
    By on January 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Drip…drip…drip… day by day, stocks leak higher, gradually inching up to record nominal highs; credit yields compress to record lows (and spreads near record pre-crisis tights); and volatility compresses (realized and implied) to near all-time-record lows. We have discussed the posi...
  • Rumbles In The Bond Market Rattling Gold
    By on January 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Last July the 10-Yr UST yield fell to an all-time low of 1.379%. Since that time yields have been steadily rising with the 10-Yr yield hitting 1.947%. The rise in interest rates has been greater than the rise in inflation rates which may be hurting gold since it is highly influenced by real interest...

Advertisement