RSS

Advertisement

Why Has The Fed Truncated Non-Performing Loan Data?

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    December 23, 2012

    Reader Wendy pinged me with a question I have no answer for: What happened to the Fed data series on non-performing loans? 

    Here is the link:  Assets at Banks whose ALLL exceeds their Nonperforming Loans (LLRNPT).

    Reader Wendy writes …

    The original series showed how banks always had 90% or above allowance for loan and lease losses until the 2008 financial crisis. It then dropped like a stone to 15%. It has been gradually struggling up since then and is now 35%.

    The old data series showed how pathetically inadequate the reserves are and how slow the recovery (actually, non-recovery since about 2/3 of loan and lease losses are not covered!).

    The new series makes the “recovery” look significant. I’m amazed that the Fed did this.

    Mish, please take a look at this and comment to your wide readership.

    Wishing you a very Merry Christmas,
    Regards,
    Wendy

    Hello Wendy, Merry Christmas to you and all my readers as well.

    I do not know when this happened, or why, so I cannot comment on that. However, I have a few historical charts to show from late 2009, and I have some thoughts on the data series following the charts.

    Current Truncated Chart

    Click on any chart for sharper image

    To show you what Wendy is asking about, here are a few charts that I captured in 2009.

    Assets at banks whose ALLL exceeds Nonperforming loans

    Banks with Total Assets from $1B to $10B where ALLL exceeds Nonperforming loans

    Banks with Total Assets from $1B to $10B (Pacific Region) where ALLL exceeds Nonperforming loans

    Banks with Total Assets over $20B where ALLL exceeds Nonperforming loans

    Remember that allowances for loan losses will decrease as charge offs increase. However, the above charts are in relation to non-performing loans.

    Description of Allowances for Loan & Lease Losses

    To understand the importance of ALLL, inquiring minds are reading a description of Allowances for Loan & Lease Losses.

    Businesses try to predict, on an ongoing basis, the amount of loss in their accounts. They take periodic charges to earnings to better match losses to periods when they occurred. Banks do this as well. They use current income, through the provision for loan and lease losses, to create and build a reserve to absorb losses.

    The ALLL can be increased another way. When the bank collects on previously charged-off loans, the amount recovered goes into the ALLL.

    Charged-off loans decrease the ALLL. If a bank decides it has overestimated its potential loss exposure, it can choose to reduce its ALLL and add the amount to its income. This is known as making “reverse provisions” for loan and lease losses, because the bank decreases the allowance, or reserve amount, rather than increasing the provision. It is rare for a bank to make a reverse provision, however, because of the imprecise nature of determining an appropriate reserve.

    One last point to remember with respect to the reserve is that the ALLL is a general reserve. Therefore, even if a bank analyzes and estimates the loss on each loan, the allowance is there to absorb all losses in the loan portfolio and is not specific to a particular loan.

    Implications

    Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings have been wildly over-stated.

    Thanks Wendy.

    Mike “Mish” Shedlock

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

    Read more at

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/12/fed-truncates-non-performing-loan-data.html#fgsbo4p3rOA9yxlL.99

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.  Visit Sitka Pacific’s Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

    You are currently viewing my global economics blog which typically has commentary every day of the week. I am also a contributing “professor” on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.  Every Thursday I do a podcast on HoweStreet and on an ad hoc basis contribute to many other sites.

    When not writing about stocks or the economy I spend a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com.

Advertisement