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Time To Pile Into Apple Shorts Or Go Long Again?

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    December 12, 2012

    Apple continues to under-perform, yet continues to go exactly as anticipated by the latest 3 quarters of BoomBustBlog research. Let’s take a more granular look at this, shall we…

    appl copy

    Believe it or not there are still many naysayers who are attempting to hold on to the notion that Apple is simply in  temporary dip, despite having a precise historical template from which to read the #margincompression theory (see Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money!) tea leaves from. Those tea leaves are steeped in a essence of Blackberry (reference BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job!) and they demonstrate clearly how quickly a seemingly fundamentally strong company that is an adored brand name can hit the skids when it fails to cannibalize its own margins. Basically, if you don’t do it, someone else will do it for you.

    For those of you who feel that Apple’s slide is correlated with the fall of the NAZ, simply look again at the chart above. Apple’s fall has taken on a macro-fundamental- forward looking fall of its own. Why is that? Well, after Deconstructing The Most Hated Trade Of The Decade, The 375% BoomBustBlog Apple Call!! I went into detail with Deconstructing The Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever Made – Share Price, Market Share, Strategy and All. But wait, it goes deeper than that. The seminal research that we released that predicted the rise of Samsung over Apple  over a year ago has been proven accurate beyond a shadow of a doubt, now…

    Apple -Competition and Cost Structure - unlocked Page 08

    Apple -Competition and Cost Structure - unlocked Page 09

    As can be corroborated through the latest findings by research company IDC: Q3 share of smart connected device market is: Apple 15.1%; Samsung 21.8%

    Top 5 Smart Connected Device Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, Q3 2012 (shipments in millions) 

    Vendor 3Q12 Unit Shipments 3Q12 Market Share 3Q11 Unit Shipments 3Q11 Market Share 3Q12/3Q11 Growth
    Samsung 66.1 21.8% 33.5 14.0% 97.5%
    Apple 45.8 15.1% 33.1 13.9% 38.3%
    Lenovo 21.1 7.0% 13.2 5.5% 60.0%
    HP 14.0 4.6% 17.6 7.4% -20.5%
    Sony 11.0 3.6% 8.7 3.7% 25.4%
    Other 145.6 48.0% 132.7 55.6% 9.7%
    Total 303.6 100.0% 238.9 100.0% 27.1%

    What many may fail to notice is the slot below Apple, occupied by Lenovo. The Chinese companies are bustin’ ass once it comes to Android phones, not just in price, but also in features and quality as well. As stated in my last missive on this topic, no one can complain about not wanting a phone due to low Chinese quality because they’re all Chinese now – including the iPhones and the Galaxy’s – reference Smartphone Hardware Manufacturers Are Dead, Long Live The Google-like Solution Providers (this is an article that is a must read for those who do not know what is going in China re: Android phones and technology!).

    Currently, the best phone on the market (feature-wise) also happens to be the cheapest phone on the market, and also happens to be a Chinese phone… Sold by a Chinese Company.

    The-OPPO-Finders-Different-Views

    This phone is one of the thinnest phones ever sold at 6.99 millimeters thick.

    It has a 5 inch, FULL HD 1080p screen resolutionwith 441dpi density. This is approaching twice the resolution of the iPhone 5 and a full 1/3 greater pixels more than the “retina’ screen.

    The phone has the fastest chip on the market, the new quad-core Snapdgragon, materially faster than the chip inside the iPhone, and not just spec-wise but actual real world performance as well.

    It has a 2.1 mega-pixel front facing camera that can do full HD video conferencing and a 12 mega-pixel rear facing camera with dual xenon flash (one of the highest resolutions in the market).

    This cell phone will outrun and outperform a Macbook air laptop in many instances!

    It is not a cheap Chinese knock-off. If anything, the iPhone 5 is a cheap American designed, Chinese made knock-off. Try doing this with your iPhone 5….

    Oh yeah! A two year old already tried it, not with a grown man via hammer and nails, but just with her mommy’s keys (may I add that iFixit is a well respected outfit):

    Long story short, if anything, the iPhone 5 is the cheap knock off in terms of speed, durabilty or functionality!

    This phone retails, unsubsidized and fully unlocked for just over $500 USD, as compared to the iPhone 5 which starts at $649. As I have been saying for quite some time, Apple is WAAAAYYYY behind the curve in terms of functionality, specs and quality and the only way they can catch up to the Android clan (that is if they even can catch up) is through share price destroying #MarginCompression, as told throughout this blog’s Apple research history (see, again, Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money).

    This is not a trading site, but the obvious is… Well… Obvious!

    Subscribers, as recommended at the release of the iPhone 5, positions should have been moved to lean towards the pessimistic scenario in the lastest Apple report. Now that we have clearly pierced the optimistic and base case scenario valuations, I am now more convinced than ever that the pessimistic scenario will remain the focus in the upcoming months. If you have ridden this long until the iPhone 5 release then shorted, you should have ample profits. Profit protection is key, so to avoid a pop in the stock, take profits and set up a position to assume the realization of the pessimistic scenario in the upcoming quarters.

    The latest valuation bands can be accessed in the last few pages of the reports below by paying subscribers (click here to subscribe). I’d like to make clear that this research is worth significantly more than the relatively paltry subscription price it takes to access it. In just the last month, it’s already worth more than $34,852,564,500 ($34,852,564,500 – That’s How Much BoomBustBlog’s Apple Research Was Worth Today!). In addition, it would’ve, could’ve, should’ve saved an entire renknown brokergage firm/investment bank from failure, reference The Blog That Could Have Saved That Institutional Broker – Or – Beware Of Those Poison Apples!!!

    Images: Flickr (licence/attribution)

    About The Author

    Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analysts reports. Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record
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