Google The New Microsoft?, Android The New Windows?

In June 2010, I claimed that ‘There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All‘. In said piece, I asserted that Google was well positioned to knock Apple off of its perch, but more importantly that Google was also best positioned to be the leader of the new paradigm – the intersection of computing, telecommunications and media.

It’s now incontrovertible that I was correct on the first assertion, see Cost Shifting Your Way To Prominence Using The Network Effect, Or Google Wins – Apple, RIM & Microsoft Have ALREADY LOST! – and from an investment perspective, Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money! Now, ample evidence of the second assertion is coming to the forefront…

It is Google’s Android OS that has enabled this rapid advancement in tech, and it’s Google’s cut throat open source business model that has provided the impetus for the rapid drop in hardware prices that accompanies the steep spike in functionality.

Judging the tepid take-up of the new Windows 8/phone platform, and the current decline in Apple cache as well as relative market share – the Windows PC platform can now read its own obituary as Android becomes the new computing standard. At the rate things are going, my other prognostications in the space will come to fore rather prematurely…

Smartphone Hardware Manufacturers Are Dead, Long Live The Google-like Solution Providers

Computer Hardware Vendors Are Dead, Part Deux!

All paying subscribers should download the Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics. Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summmary 04/20/2012

Google Q1 2011 results 04/18/2011

Google Q3 2010 reveiw 11/08/2010

Google Final Report 10/08/2010

An Analysis and Valuation of Google’s Android and AdMob 09/27/2010

Google Valuation Model 09/21/2010

Google’s VOIP and Telephony Services 09/16/2010

Google Cloud Based Services

Google TV Analysis

A couple of bits from our archives…

There are currently 7 Google reports available. Select the “Google Final Report” and click the “Download” button. You will receive a 63 page analysis that looks like this on the cover…

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as valuation for each business line.

Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

Professional/institutional subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.

Images: Flickr (licence/attribution)

About The Author

Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analysts reports. Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record