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December 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Best Stock Market Indicator Ever Cliff Dives!
    By on December 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Eve...
  • Why We’re Headed for a Showdown…
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Fresh from releasing his exhaustive and excellent Year In Review last week, Dave Collum sits down with Chris to discuss the key developments of 2012 in detail. One area they focus on in particular is how 2012 appears to be the year when consequences died for criminal acts by the powerful and conne...
  • Thoughts On What Might Happen In 2013
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The following are my thoughts about things that might happen in 2013. This (Link) takes you to a discussion of my forecasts for 2012. I got a number of things right, and some important things wrong.   2013   – The bulk of the fiscal cliff issues will be pushed into 2013. This set...
  • The IMF On China’s Over-Investment
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now clo...
  • ECRI Leading Index Update: Flunking Recession 101?
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week’s 127.2. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.4, up from last we...
  • Here’s Why Friday Market Action Was Ugly!
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Dow closed down 158 points, or 1.2% yesterday. The S&P 500 closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.9%. A 1% move isn’t much at all as volatility goes. Quite normal in fact. But here’s why it was worrisome yesterday. After holding up so impressively over recent weeks as the new year a...
  • Stalling Job Growth May Spell Trouble For 2013
    By on December 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Various indicators I track suggest that we may get a decent pullback in the markets in Q1 2013. While the indicators I look at suggest a correction, they do not shed any light on the catalyst that would precipitate such an event.  As I show below, stalling employment growth will most likely be the ...
  • France: Economic Implosion Well Underway…
    By on December 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices. The spotlight for this post is France, the second largest Eurozone economy following Germany.The Markit France Retail PMI® shows French retail sales fall for ninth conse...
  • Google The New Microsoft?, Android The New Windows?
    By on December 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    In June 2010, I claimed that ‘There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All‘. In said piece, I asserted that Google was well positioned to knock Apple off of its perch, but more importantly that Google was also best ...
  • Silver Juniors
    By on December 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Silver mine production is expected to come in at nearly 800m ounces in 2012, an all-time record and the seventh consecutive year of growth (per the U.S. Geological Survey).  At 2012’s average silver price, this total represents a value of nearly $25b.  There’s a lot of money to be made mini...
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI Downturn Accelerates
    By on December 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Downturn of manufacturing sector accelerated during December.  Key points: Output and new orders register sharpest contractions for 20 months Employment, purchasing and stocks all continue to be cut Output charges lowered further as input prices re...
  • Why Are Claims Not Translating To Full Time Jobs?
    By on December 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
      “CNN Money:  The number of newly unemployed seeking jobless benefits fell more sharply than expected last week, taking a key reading to its lowest level in more than four years, the government reported Thursday. There were 350,000 filing for initial jobless claims in the week, down fro...
  • Will Mortgage Social Trap Make Spain Exit Euro?
    By on December 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Looking for a synopsis of the problems facing Spain? A summary of bullet points I gathered from the Spiegel article Evictions Become Focus of Spanish Crisis shows just how hopeless the situation is.   There were a record number of evictions in 2012, foreclosures are expected to increase in ...
  • What Is The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index?
    By on December 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Philly Fed’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and...
  • Consumer Confidence Plunges
    By on December 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through December 13. The 65.1 reading was well off the consensus estimate of 70.0 reported by Briefing.com. Today’s number is a steep decline from the interim high of 73.1 in October. The...
  • The Structural Endgame Of The Fiscal Cliff
    By on December 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    To understand this endgame, we need to start with the financial and political basics of wealth and power in the U.S. 1.  Wealth and thus political power are highly concentrated.  The dynamics of rising wealth disparity and the increasing concentration of wealth are debatable; the disparity is not...

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