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November 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Markets At Fiscal Cliff Mercy and Vice Versa!
    By on November 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s obvious that the near term health of global markets is dependent on the outcome of negotiations aimed at resolving the fiscal cliff before year end. But it also seems apparent that the political will in Washington to reach a compromise is being determined by concerns about controlling market ...
  • Q3 GDP: ‘The Devil Is In The Detail’̷...
    By on November 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The good news this morning is that the 2nd estimate of the third quarter (3Q) GDP was revised up from 2.0% initially to 2.7%.  This is up sharply from the 2Q print of 1.3%.  As usual we will dig down into the numbers and look at the changes in the data but it is important to note that, as pointed ...
  • Are Italian Woes Leading To French Lows?
    By on November 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    As a quick reminder, we’re still looking out for ‘The Great French Unwind‘, for it will start as ‘The Pandemic Bank Flu Spread From Italy To France To …‘.  You see, as I see it, the duopoly of those controlling the EU purse strings is far from invulnerabl...
  • Consumer Confidence: Back At February 2008 Levels!
    By on November 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through November 13. The 73.7 reading was above the consensus estimate of 73.0 reported by Briefing.com. This is the highest level for this indicator since February 2008. The consumer has prove...
  • Recession Red Flag: Core Capex
    By on November 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Last month Business Insider posted a commentary with the attention-grabbing headline: DAVID ROSENBERG: Here’s Your Big Red Flag That We Could Be Heading For Recession. Rosenberg has frequently included CAPEX among his various recession indicators. This morning the Census Bureau released the...
  • Reflections: Complacency, Bear Markets and Valuation
    By on November 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Inquiring minds are reading John Hussman’s article on Overlooking Overvaluation.  Our estimates of prospective stock market return/risk, on a blended horizon from 2-weeks to 18-months, remains among the most negative that we’ve observed in a century of market data. On the valuation front, ...
  • The ‘Real’ Story On Household Incomes!
    By on November 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The traditional source of household income data is the Census Bureau, which publishes annual household income data each September for the previous year. Sentier Research, an organization that focuses on income and demographics, offers a more up-to-date glimpse of household incomes by accessing the C...
  • Chicago Fed Index (CFNAI) Looking Ominous!
    By on November 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Each month the Chicago Federal Reserve releases the latest readings of its National Activity Index (CFNAI), which it has compiled since 1967.  The financial media, and therefore investors, pay little attention to it. They should pay more attention. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators...
  • Is The Recovery Just A ‘Mind-Trick’?
    By on November 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Perhaps the recovery is a Mind Trick played on the weak-minded. Those with vested interests in the Status Quo tout data that supports the claim the “recovery” is now “self-sustaining,” meaning that the economy is now expanding fast enough to fuel new growth. In this view, th...
  • Update: Gauging Investor Sentiment With Twitter
    By on November 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) showed a strong reading of +.22 last Monday. This was near a turning point in price. As we’ve noted in previous updates, extreme readings in the daily indicator near market turning points often act as an initiation ...
  • Still Untradable: The Best Stock Market Indicator Eve...
    By on November 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Eve...
  • World Markets Update: Best Week Of 2012
    By on November 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    All eight of the indexes on our world market watch list closed the week with a gain. In fact, the average gain of the eight at 3.41% is the biggest weekly increase of 2012. The three EU indexes were the top performers, with France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAXK rising more than five percent...
  • Chart Of The Day: LEI Leading To Lagging Ratio
    By on November 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    While the general consensus from the media, and the majority of analysts, is that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession – there have been numerous indicators that have continued to point to deterioration in the economic fabric.  Most recently industrial production in the U.S. dropped...
  • Reasons To Be Bullish – At Least For A While!
    By on November 26, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    After stumbling again in the summer months, the U.S. economy is clearly back on track – if politicians smarten up and prevent it from going over the fiscal cliff. The recovery is also now being led by the housing industry, which is a particularly good omen. The two main driving forces of the e...
  • ECRI Leading Index: Index Rises, Growth Falls
    By on November 26, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data (released Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday). It is now at 125.7, up from 125.4 in the previous week. See the WLI chartin the Appendix below. The WLI annualized gr...
  • Gold Resuming Long-Term Up Trend?
    By on November 25, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    On the weekly chart below, we can see that, after making a new, all-time high back in August of 2011, gold went into a correction/consolidation mode, ultimately forming a descending triangle. While this formation suggests lower prices (the flat line is the weakest), price broke up through the top of...

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