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October 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • The Federal Reserve: A Visual Guide
    By on October 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    This is an interesting infographic on the history and function of the Federal Reserve.  As you will note, the graphic is presented without any further commentary needed. Images: Flickr (licence attribution) About The Author Lance Roberts – Host of Streettalk Live After having been in the i...
  • Japan: Post-Bubble Market Rallies and Bond Yields
    By on October 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a quick look the Nikkei 225 with an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan’s secular bear market, now well into its 22nd year. I’ve also included an overlay of nominal and real Nikkei performance and the pattern of inflation/deflation. And finally, we...
  • Update: Big Four Economic Indicators Rolling Over?
    By on October 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    This commentary has been revised to include today’s release of September Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments. The next Big Four will be Friday’s Non-Farm Employment.   Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is unde...
  • Why Is Energy Abundant, But Not Cheap?…
    By on October 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    It doesn’t matter how abundant liquid fossil fuels might be; it’s their cost that impacts the economy.  Many people think “peak oil” is about the world is “running out of oil.” Actually, “peak oil” is about the world running out of cheap, easy-to-get oil. That means fossil fuels...
  • Australian Banksia Collapse, Canadian Banks Downgrade...
    By on October 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Every day I get emails and links from all over the world. I wish I had time to comment on all of them. Here are a pair of stories regarding Canada and Australia. The Financial Post reports Six Canadian banks on review for Moody’s downgrade  Debt rating heavyweight Moody’s Investors Service s...
  • Hugh Hendry: Gold, Inflation, Treasuries, Stocks and ...
    By on October 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is an excellent interview at The Economist Buttonwood Conference featuring Hugh Hendry. You may have to enter your email address to play, but I doubt it has to be accurate as there was no verification process. The interview is well worth a play in entirety, covering Gold, Hyperinflation, Tre...
  • GDP: The Warning From Exports…
    By on October 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the past several months we have been discussing that this is no longer your “father’s economy.”  What we have meant by this is the economic environment today is vastly different than that which most of our parents grew up in.  We recently discussed in “Debt: Driving...
  • China: As Growth Model Changes, Abandon Correlations
    By on October 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Chiwoong Lee at Goldman Sachs has a new report out (“China vs. 1970s Japan”, September 25, 2012) in which he predicts that China’s long-term growth rate will drop to 7.5-8.5%. I disagree very strongly with his forecast, of course, and expect China’s growth rate over the next decade to avera...
  • Recession: The Great Moderation Is Dead, Revisited!
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    In what has been one of the greatest signs of economic and financial hubris over the last quarter century was the argument that the business cycle had been conquered by central bankers and the modern economy. The idea that recessions were a thing of the past and that economic volatility since 1980 t...
  • Head And Shoulder Patterns: Just Mumbo-Jumbo?
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    First understand that our buy and sell signals are not based on patterns but on technical indicators that measure potential support/resistance levels, overbought/oversold conditions, internal strength, money-flow reversals, market momentum reversals, etc., with additional input from short-term and a...
  • Gold Still Sliding…
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    After a vigorous rally that began in August gold hit a wall this month when it reached the resistance line drawn across the February high. Since then it has dropped nearly 5%, moving at a faster rate than would be justified by the recent strength of the dollar. We can see support from the next risin...
  • Best Stock Market Indicator Ever Now Untradable?
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Eve...
  • Update: Core CAPEX Recession Indicator
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Earlier this month Business Insider posted a commentary with the attention-grabbing headline:DAVID ROSENBERG: Here’s Your Big Red Flag That We Could Be Heading For Recession. I generally find Rosenberg’s chronically bearish commentaries of interest and in this case by the fact that he&...
  • Is The Market Plunging Over An Earnings Cliff?
    By on October 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The previous worries of the market seem to be fading away, only to be replaced by a new one that is perhaps more directly meaningful to stock market valuation. The U.S. economic slowdown of the spring and summer months appears to have bottomed. Home sales, new home starts, and home prices, have all ...
  • Astro-Technical Update: War Then Crash or Vice Versa?
    By on October 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    We have an interesting couple of weeks ahead … where the ghoulies, ghosties and goblins of Halloween may turn out to be the least scary item on the agenda. For some time now, quite famed astrologers have been speculating on the potential for war to erupt … or, at least, police to be sent...
  • SPX and 2012 Elections 3
    By on October 27, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    After a long contentious slog, the hyper-critical 2012 elections are almost here.  Americans will finally have the opportunity to choose our great nation’s future course.  Will we collectively vote for free-market prosperity or big-government dependency?  One thing is certain, the fortunes of t...

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