Wait a minute! Apple’s share price was spiking due to speculation that the iPhone 5 debut may double or more the sales of the iPhone 4S, remember? Let’s take a gander at some of the bullshit that came out of the press.
Apple sold the iPhone 5 in 9 countries over its opening weekend. It sold the iPhone 4S in 7. It actually sold fewer iPhones per country this year than the last. That’s not just deceleration, that’s shrinkage:
iPhone Sales per country
Decelerating growth is not good for a company like Apple, which despite a modest P/E ratio, has one of the most generous trailing 12 month revenue multiples of any hardware company on the public markets.
As I explained in detail on the Max Keiser show, Google will be a very difficult company for Apple to successfully compete with. The problem is that practically no one seems to understand what kind of company Google is, and hence why Apple will have a nigh impossible time competing….
This thesis has come into its own with Apple’s new iOS6 operating system and its exclusion of Google Maps for its inclusion of its own in-house mapping system. The end result? #FAIL, ##disasater!!!
This is what happens when a handset manufacturer attempts to take on the world’s largest data company. Now to be fair, Apple had very liitle choice in the matter since its relationship with Google and its OEMs have gotten global litigation level bad, but still this is an area where Apple is sorely outclassed and it will never hav a chance to catch up while maintaining those uber-fat margins that the hedge fund hotel crowd has grown to relay on.
This guy Ben Parr over at Cnet was the only one in the Apple adoring press that seems to have gotten it right, read on…
Mapping is a core function of any smartphone. Every person who has a smartphone has a need for maps. If Apple removed Maps from iOS completely, customers would start switching to other smartphones. It’s just that important.
So if you’re Tim Cook, you have two choices. You can either A) let your enemy Google continue to power your default Maps application, or B) you can build your own Maps app and kick Google to the curb.
This is the decision that Tim Cook and his team faced when they decided to jettison Google Maps as the default mapping application for iOS. Instead, Apple decided to build its own Maps application, powered partly by data from TomTom.
iOS 6 Maps, while a beautifully-designed application, clearly wasn’t ready for prime time. This shouldn’t come as a surprise: Google Maps is more than seven years old, and Google employsmore than 7,000 people on it, including the thousands of drivers who make Street View possible. Apple, on the other hand, is frantically hiring engineers to fix the gaping holes users have uncovered in Maps.
Let’s go back to the original question: did Apple make the right decision with Maps? It’s easy to say in hindsight that Apple should have stuck with Google or waited another year to release its own Maps app. However, consider the factors that Apple had to deal with:
Allowing Google to control a key piece of iOS was unacceptable. If Apple had no alternative to Google Maps, the search giant could have made high demands that Apple would have had to accept. Having no default Maps application is unthinkable for a major smartphone.
The longer Apple took to release its own Maps app, the more entrenched Google Maps would be.
The only way to test a new map application at a large scale it to release it to users. They will be able to find holes quicker than a small team of engineers.
A mapping application can only go so far without large amounts of user-generated data.
….iOS 6 Maps is a disappointment any way you slice it. I have friends who refuse to upgrade to iOS 6 because of Maps. But Apple wasn’t going to learn anything keeping Maps locked away for another year, and there was no way it was going to let Google control its mapping technology for a minute longer than it had to.
Apple’s taking some serious blows for its buggy Maps app. But it made the right decision releasing it. Now it’s just a question of how quickly Apple can fix iOS 6 Maps’ many flaws and stem the negative press it has generated. Apple’s probably going to be feeling the pain for a while.
I clearly called Apple’s problem in the Max Keiser interview above. Google is light years ahead of Apple in cloud/distributed computing/applied data tech, experience and capabilities. This maps fiasco is merely the beginning, for Apple TV will face a real challenge from YouTube once it becomes an actual network in lieu of simply a platform (witness and reference the push for new, original content) and Google’s many cloud based apps start making the iOS functionality appear as dated as it is. Apple has a very, very slim chance of catching up, and if it does it will because it spend a LOT of money, chopping up those margins.
The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as valuation for each business line.
Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.
Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analysts reports. Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record