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September 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Astro-Technical Update: Black Swan In Saturn?
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    With September and the 3rd Quarter now behind us, we’ll spend a little time this weekend looking closely at two of the major American indices for signs of stress. The danger of an unexpected Black Swan event remains in force over the coming week. This weekend’s Harvest Moon provides a po...
  • Recession: 2 of 4 Big Economic Indicators Turn Down
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Recently I analyzed the ECRI recession call saying “Doug [Short] uses the 4 most important components of the economy – consumer spending which makes up more than 70% of GDP, industrial production which leads to employment and incomes which drive consumption. The chart below shows a c...
  • Japan PMI: Output and New Orders Contract Further
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The global economy continues to weaken most everywhere you look. The focus of this post is Japan where the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Modest deterioration in operating conditions recorded in September.  Key points: Output and new orders both down again, albeit at slower rates We...
  • ECRI Leading Index Highest Since June 2011
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the eighth consecutive week, now at 126.7, up from last week’s 125.3 (revised from 124.7). See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) now marks its sixth week in expansion territory at 3.8 ...
  • Many Divergences Not Confirming S&P500 Highs!
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Decision Point tracks each stock in a given market index and determines the location of its current price in relation to the 52-week high and 52-week low. We express this relationship using a scale of zero (at the 52-week low) to 100 (at the 52-week high). A stock in the middle of its 52-week range...
  • Welcome To The Era Of Ugly Inflation
    By on September 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    A year ago, in the wake of the then-announced additional monetary easing measures by the Federal Reserve (which since sent stock prices on a rocket ride for the next nine months), many of our readers feared a major decline in the dollar was imminent. To add some balance to our site content, we asked...
  • Silver Miners ETF
    By on September 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s hard to believe that silver was trading at only $4 just 11 years ago.  And amazingly it was only 7 years ago that silver had hit $10 for the first time in nearly two decades.  Now at over $30 and rising, silver is flexing its muscles as one of the best-performing assets of the last decade....
  • Hope Shifts To China Central Bank Stimulus!
    By on September 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    With no follow-through so far to the initial two-day spike-up global rallies in response to the ECB’s ‘whatever it takes’ program, the U.S. Fed’s QE3 announcement, and Japan’s additional stimulus plan, hopes for more market support have shifted to China. After five straight down-days for ...
  • GDP And Durable Goods: Heading To Recession?
    By on September 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of August I wrote “Q2 GDP – Nothing Good Happening Here” wherein I stated:  “With GDP currently at 1.7%, as of the latest estimate, the decline in overall PCE, Goods, and Durable Goods, is very concerning about the next couple of quarters ahead. While the pick u...
  • Do Falling Oil Prices Hint Of Stock Market Decline?
    By on September 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    When the economy slowed in the summer of 2010 and the Fed launched QE2, commodity prices took off like a SpaceX rocket. The price of crude oil reversed to the upside along with the stock market, surging up 64%, from $70 a barrel to $114 a barrel eight months later in April, 2011. When the economy be...
  • How Crony Capitalism Corrupts The Free Market
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Archived from the live Mises.tv broadcast, this lecture by David Stockman was presented at the Mises Circle in Manhattan: “Central Banking, Deposit Insurance, and Economic Decline.” Includes a welcome and introduction by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. Music by Kevin MacLeod. Images via Fli...
  • QE Infinity: Why It Won’t Create Expected Infla...
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Fed can create money but if it doesn’t end up as household income it is “dead money.” In the consensus view, the Federal Reserve’s unlimited quantitative easing (QE3) programs will do two things: 1) boost stocks and other “risk on” assets and 2) generate infla...
  • Is China Burning?: Shanghai Index Cracks 2000!
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    This week the Shanghai stock index, $SSEC, dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009. Stockcharts does not have intraday charts of ADRs so here are a couple of charts from yesterday to consider.$SSEC Daily Chart The following monthly chart puts things in better perspective. $SSEC Mo...
  • Why QE May Not Boost Stocks After All!
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    What if the Fed throws a QE equity-ramp party and the fireworks fizzle? If there is one dominant consensus in the financial sphere, it is that the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion/month bond-and-mortgage-buying “quantitative easing” will inevitably send stocks higher. The general ide...
  • Post-Election Markets: What To Expect!
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    There has been a lot of ink spilled about how the stock market performs during Presidential election years generally leaning to why investors should be fully invested to the hilt.  The current election year, with just three months remaining, has certainly played out to historical norms with the mar...
  • Did The CFNAI Prompt The Fed To Act?
    By on September 28, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    It was reported this week that the Chicago Fed’s National Business Activity Index (CFNAI) fell in August, and sharply, from –0.12 in July to –0.87 in August. Its more important 3-month m.a. fell from –0.26 in July to –0.47 in August, its sixth straight negative reading. A reading below ...

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