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August 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Eurozone Retail Sales Decline 15th Straight Month!
    By on August 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Once again there is grim data from Europe. The safe thing to do is expect grim data every time European data is reported. Except for an occasional outlier, you will not be too far off. Eurozone Retail Sales Decline 15th MonthMarkit Reports Eurozone retail downturn deepens in August  Key points: R...
  • US Drought Hitting Harder Than Most Realize
    By on August 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    This is an important update on the U.S. drought of 2012, the combined record-setting July land temperatures, and their impact on food prices, water availability, energy, and even U.S. GDP. Even though the mainstream media seems to have lost some interest in the drought, we should keep it front and c...
  • Liquidity and Reliable Income Streams Will Become Sca...
    By on August 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Linear extrapolations based on the “one-off” commodities/debt bubble boom of the past 20 years fail to account for the non-linear dynamics of technology and changes in behavior. The causal relationship between scarcity, demand, and price is intuitive.  Whatever is scarce and in demand ...
  • Markets Still Waiting And Hoping…
    By on August 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Hopes for Fed action kept the summer rally going, even though those hopes kept getting kicked down the road to perhaps the next FOMC meeting, or Ben Bernanke’s next speech, or the ECB’s next meeting. The hopes that were very high that Bernanke’s speech tomorrow will signal QE3 is on the launc...
  • Q2 GDP: Nothing Good Happening Here…
    By on August 31, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    On Wednesday morning we received the 2nd estimate of the 2nd Quarter 2012 GDP.  The good news is that the original 1.5% estimate was revised up to 1.7% which is only slightly lower than theFederal Reserves estimated 2% growth rate for 2012.  The bad news is that the increase in the GDP report put...
  • Why The Apple vs Samsung Decision Is Dangerous!
    By on August 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    In continuing my rant on the Apple v. Samsung verdict, I wish to make clear once again that the vast majority of consumers of Google’s and Apple’s products are absolutely oblivious to the business model of Google, the business practices of Apple and the shadowy aggressive survival tacti...
  • Real GDP Per Capita: Another Economic Perspective
    By on August 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Earlier today we learned that the Second Estimate for Q2 real GDP came in at 1.7%, an increase from the Q2 Advance Estimate of 1.5%. Let’s now review the numbers on a per-capita basis. For an alternate historical view of the economy, here is a chart of real GDP per-capita growth since 1960. Fo...
  • Gauging Investor Sentiment With Twitter…
    By on August 30, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    With the advent of social media sites such as Twitter, investors now have the ability to get real time sentiment information on individual stocks and stock market indexes. The Twitter stream can be read by a computer program that scores each tweet and aggregates the scores into a daily value for eac...
  • Why The QEIII Mechanism Is Broken…
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    When Ben Bernanke launched QE 2 in 2010 he outlined a third mandate for the Federal Reserve – the boosting of consumer confidence.  He stated that the goal of QE 2 was to boost asset prices in order to spur consumer confidence through the “wealth effect” which should translate i...
  • European Bank Run Watch: ‘Spanish-Style’
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    As part of my ongoing series which I started in January of 2010 – Pan-European sovereign debt crisis, I detailed the rapidly developing financial malaise in Europe, detailing the risk to the larger more respected western European nations as well as their perceived profligate brethren to the s...
  • Investing For The Next Recession…
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    We recently wrote an article entitled ‘No Recession Now, But When?’ which discussed that recessions are part of the normal economic cycle.  We stated:  ‘It is an indisputable fact that a recession is coming. For economists, and analysts, the R word is as feared and loathed as th...
  • European Bank Run Watch: Swiss Edition
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    On July 23, 2011 I penned ‘The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs’! which detailed for my readers and subscribers the mechanics of the modern day bank run, particular as I see (saw) it occurring in Europe. image015 Those that follow me kn...
  • Government Spending: Percentage Of GDP
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Here are a couple of charts from Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives regarding government spending. Federal Government Spending as Percent of GDP Total Government Spending as Percent of GDP I asked Doug for those charts because Paul Krugman said he would be concerned if government spending hit 5...
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look!
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    As Republicans convene in Tampa to nominate Mitt Romney and hammer out their party platform, one of the planks that could attract the most attention is the Party’s official position on the gold standard. As it is now being considered, the platform stops short of recommending a return to the go...
  • Adjusted Vehicle Miles Driven Sets New Post-Crisis Tr...
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through June. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.4% (1.1 billion vehicle miles) for June 2012 as compared with June 2011. However, the 12-month moving average ...
  • August Consumer Confidence Surprises To The Downside!
    By on August 29, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 16. The 60.6 reading was below the consensus estimate of 65.7 reported byBriefing.com. This is a decline from last month’s 65.4, which is a slight downward revision from the...

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