Obviously, the bounce was not done. Mea Culpa. I rather seriously under-estimated the end-of-half-year effect and, with the benefit of hindsight, ought to have been even more wary of Goldman’s recent call to Short the market. I did indicate last weekend the Masters of the Universe could have...

In case you need some humor today, please consider ‘No risk of housing bust’ from the Reserve Bank of Australia.  Australia is not at danger of a collapse in the housing market, a top central banker says, again playing down concerns that Australia could suffer price falls like those see...

Today our mechanical Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) for the S&P 500 switched from NEUTRAL to BUY. For our purposes, the S&P 500 represents “the market.” ————————– (Excerpt from the June 29, 2012 blog for Decision Point subscribe...

With the equity market rally over the past two weeks our long term and intermediate surveys improved slightly but continue to remain in neutral to bearish territory and suggests the market has either more downside or further healing ahead before the outlook turns bullish. * Note: For further exp...

On May 18th we published “Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Coming” wherein we stated:  “The current market correction should not come as a surprise to any one. There has been consistent and substantial evidence that the rally that began last October was unsustainable. We d...

Global economies and markets are looking for a meaningful solution of the euro-zone crisis as their biggest hope for preventing a global recession. How realistic is that? Attempts to control or even end the crisis began two years ago with the first bailout of Greece in May, 2010. Bailout funds and ...

The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market. The OEXA is used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when yo...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped to 121.3 from last week’s 121.8 (a slight downward revision from 121.9). See the chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) also declined, now at -3.5 as reported in Friday’s public release of the...

Gold stocks languish in a sentiment wasteland these days, left for dead by everyone but a small contrarian remnant.  So naturally bears abound, their arguments dominated by the idea that gold miners’ costs are so high that they can’t make money anymore.  Provocatively though, this notion is to...

The bounceback may have completed – hitting precise Time and Price targets expected for a 2nd degree countertrend. The timespan of trends and countertrends is detailed in The Technical Section of the book (Price & Time, Page 69) and may be worthwhile your re-reading since most indices appe...

Beginning in 2011 the Federal Reserve begin releasing its economic forecast for the present year and two years forward covering GDP, Unemployment, and Inflation.  The question is after 18 months of forecasting – just how good has the Fed at forecasting these economic variables?  I have compi...

Decision Point has a number of ultra-short-term (days) indicators that help us monitor market conditions within that time frame. Primarily we are interested in overbought or oversold conditions, which identify buying and selling climaxes — events that indicate that investor enthusiasm in a par...

Perceptions have certainly changed a lot in the last few months. As recently as three years ago there were so few analysts who were skeptical about the sustainability of Chinese growth that we rarely disagreed among ourselves. Now, however, the group of skeptics has become large enough that there a...

Just how will the sovereign debt crisis end? We’ve all heard the line – let me give it to you straight. And in speaking to his counterparts in Spain, an Irish economist did just that. Ireland has this banking advice for Spain: imagine the worst and double it. [emphasis added] Like Irel...

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher. When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let’s take a look at why. US...

The global economy continues to slow led by Europe and China. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is at a 7-month low. Moreover manufacturers report the sharpest decline in new export orders since March 2009. Key Points Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.1 (48.4 in May). 7-month low. Flash...