Logo Background RSS

Advertisement

Marc Faber: Market Crash, China Recession and US Catastrophe!

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher 43 Comments43 Comments Comments
    May 3, 2012

    Inquiring minds are listening to Marc Faber on the global economy.

    Link if video does not play: Marc Faber speaks of Imminent Market Crash

    Faber says China faces a recession defined as a slowdown to 3%.

    Interestingly, 3% is the same long-term target that Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has come up with. Indeed Pettis has made two bets with the Economist over growth rates and when Chain will surpass the US in terms of GDP.

    The Economist says China will pass the US up by 2018. Pettis and I say no way. Pettis also says China will average 3.5% or less growth for the rest of the decade. I agree with Pettis.

    For details of the bet and my thoughts, please see 12 Predictions by Michael Pettis on China; Non-Food Commodity Prices Will Collapse Over Next Three to Four Years; Nails in the Hard Landing Coffin?

    Faber does not believe China’s GDP as stated now, and neither do I. Both of us think China has hugely understated inflation.

    However, Faber sees a chance of serious inflation in the US. I don’t. Faber narrowly focuses on money supply and ignores credit. And credit will collapse once again if the US heads back into recession as Faber thinks. Indeed credit has at best held steady in this recovery, after one corrects for student loans.

    Please see The Real Consumer Credit Story: Virtually No Recovery in Revolving Credit, No Recovery in Non-Revolving Credit
    for a discussion.

    Since credit dwarfs money supply, odds of significant inflation in the face of negative credit growth is not high. Those betting on high inflation or hyperinflation have simply been wrong, and will continue to be wrong until Bernanke reignites bank lending.

    Given capital constraints on banks, consumer needs to deleverage, boomers heading for retirement with insufficient savings, and businesses reluctant to expand, Bernanke is fighting a losing battle and will be for quite some time.

    Mike “Mish” Shedlock
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
    Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.  Visit Sitka Pacific’s Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

    You are currently viewing my global economics blog which typically has commentary every day of the week. I am also a contributing “professor” on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.  Every Thursday I do a podcast on HoweStreet and on an ad hoc basis contribute to many other sites.

    When not writing about stocks or the economy I spend a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com.

    Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+Share on LinkedInPin on PinterestShare on StumbleUponShare on RedditShare on TumblrDigg thisBuffer this pageFlattr the authorEmail this to someonePrint this page

Advertisement

Closed Comments are currently closed.
Real Time Web Analytics