Almost a year ago in this column I pointed out the eerie similarities in April (2011) to conditions the previous April (2010). And sure enough the similarities continued into almost identical 20% market corrections before the bull market resumed. And here we are again this year looking at eerie simi...

We don’t look at the 4-Year Cycle chart very often, but a subscriber’s comments reminded me that now would be an excellent time to view the progress of this important cycle. (Excerpt from the March 30, 2012 blog for Decision Point subscribers.) Click here for FREE TRIAL! On the chart ...

A year ago I was pointing out the eerie similarities in April (2011) to conditions the previous April (2010), and sure enough the similarities continued into an almost identical 20% summer correction. And here we are looking at a similar picture as March draws to a close this year. Like the last tw...

Getting Europe’s mainstream politicians and appointed technocrats to agree to bailouts and austerity was actually the easy part. The real challenge for these guys will be holding onto their jobs — and preserving the deals they’ve cut — in upcoming elections. Voters, it seems, aren’t convin...

Given their overall size, the stock market and economy resemble a large oil tanker much more than a speed boat. Rather than turning on a dime or suddenly changing speed all at once, there is often an unseen and well-charted process that accompanies gradual changes in economic momentum. For investors...

During bullish market advances there is a lot of faulty analysis done in order to promote a bullish bias.  Wells Fargo Advisors today pretty much just captured the gold in this competition with this piece of lunacy via Bloomberg:  “Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 1...

We have written many articles in the past about market movements from both the technical and the fundamentalperspective.  Lately there has been a raft of articles about the current cheapness of the market particularly after a 3 year bull market cycle.  The question is whether this is the case o...

A Barron’s article over the weekend discussed flows into and out of exchange-traded funds that bet against the market as a potential sentiment indicator (linkhere, subscription may be required). We’ve looked at volume into and out of those funds in the past, and it has been mostly effective…...

Stock markets in Asia and Europe had their worst week of the year last week in response to unexpectedly negative economic news from China and the 17-nation eurozone. The U.S. stock market was disappointed and pulled back some last week on reports from the U.S. housing industry that were unexpectedly...

With the unemployment rate in the high single-digits and with national average gasoline prices approaching last years’ highs of $4/gallon, one would think that the consumer discretionary sector, which lives and breathes by the spending habits of the US consumer, would be struggling. However, n...

Is it time to start dumping your holdings in gold? Has the turning point finally arrived? According to the Financial Times this past week that answer is a yes!. Investors are losing their enthusiasm for gold as signs of improvement in the US economy tempt them away from the traditional haven.  ...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -0.4 in today’s public release of the data through March 16th. This is the tenth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., lea...

We all know that the stock market has been rising for 3 years. Many economic measures — unemployment, consumer spending and confidence, etc. — also show strong improvement. Yet is that a good reason to stay bullish on stocks? What a silly question, some people might say. But before you g...

Inquiring minds are digging into details of the latest Eurozone releases. The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI® says Eurozone slides back into recession as output falls at stronger rate in March Both manufacturing output and service sector activity contracted in March, showing the worst performances for...

What is it about the economic recovery so far that allows good news to last for only six months at a time before fears rise again, and the economy needs another adrenaline fix from the Fed? The pattern has been clearly reflected in the stock market, which saw its historical pattern of making its gai...

The beleaguered gold stocks have spiraled lower this month, heaping misery on poor fools like me naive enough to invest in them.  Dwindling interest and capital has left this realm a desolate wasteland, I’ve rarely seen anything so deeply out of favor.  In fact, relative to gold the gold stock...