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January 2012 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Monday Technical Review
    By on January 31, 2012 | 428 Comments428 Comments  Comments
    Even though the Dow was down a whopping 6 points today and the equity market showed a lot of resilience rebounding off session lows there is more to the story. Biggest news today is that of US Treasuries which continue breaking out to all time highs across the entire yield curve. Additionally the en...
  • Gold ETF Mass Exodus
    By on January 30, 2012 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    Gold is enjoying an awesome January, rallying strongly out of its oversold late-December lows.  But last month’s hyper-pessimistic sentiment deserves some reflection before it totally fades from memory.  One of the core theses of the bears resolutely predicting sub-$1400 gold prices soon was the...
  • Technical Indicators: A Love-Hate Relationship
    By on January 28, 2012 | 479 Comments479 Comments  Comments
    Trading using technical indicators — such as the MACD, for example — can do one of two things: help you or hurt you.  Technical indicators are those fancy computerized studies that you frequently see at the bottom of price charts that are supposed to tell you what the market is going to...
  • Sentiment Becoming Too Bullish
    By on January 28, 2012 | 352 Comments352 Comments  Comments
    One of Thursday’s stories on CNBC.com had to do with some pros getting out of stocks because sentiment is becoming too bullish. Bullish sentiment can be a sign that an important market top could be lurking just around the corner, so let’s look at one of our sentiment charts to see how bu...
  • Thursday Technical Update: Treasuries vs Equities
    By on January 27, 2012 | 310 Comments310 Comments  Comments
    Today was another battle in the war between US Treasuries (UST) and equity. Both continue to try and breakout and move higher, something that is simply not sustainable. Let me rephrase that it is sustainable to an extent. That was the case over the past five months. After a breakout to all time hig...
  • US Treasuries and the S&P500.
    By on January 26, 2012 | 292 Comments292 Comments  Comments
    I don’t believe this market is going to come to a specific level and reverse giving an all clear signal to go short and or exit longs. The basis for that statement is in late July 2011 the market experienced a minor pullback off no major technical level that quickly turned into a major decline of ...
  • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
    By on January 26, 2012 | 273 Comments273 Comments  Comments
    There has been a deluge of articles recently about the upticks in the housing data.  The consensus is that these data points are surely pointing , finally, to a bottom in the depressing decline of real estate.  Let me acknowledge that I do not dispute the improvement in the data regarding home sta...
  • Complacency Risk Is High.
    By on January 24, 2012 | 258 Comments258 Comments  Comments
    As I was writing this past weekend’s newsletter “A Technical Review Of The Markets” it really dawned on me just how complacent investors have become on the economy, the markets and risk in general.  The mainstream media, and most of analysts, are looking at recent improvements i...
  • Monday Technical Review
    By on January 24, 2012 | 2 Comments2 Comments  Comments
    There are a lot of happy bulls out there right now with a level of complacency I don’t think I have ever seen. What I do find comical is many of these bullish individuals are claiming that credit is wrong here or the US has decoupled from various currencies pairs, etc. Where the comedy comes in th...
  • The End Of Europe
    By on January 20, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the interesting things about being in Hong Kong is that I get to see the weekend edition of the Financial Times 12 hours early. And the headlines were not all that pleasant. As I promised last week, we will cast our eyes to Europe and ponder what is in store for Europe for the year and the ...
  • Technical Update: Implied Volatility Skew
    By on January 20, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    I have not posted a skew chart in quite a while. Admittedly it was getting difficult to draw conclusions from some of the wild price action. That was until the past few days when the skew literally shot out of a cannon. While the vix remains in a descending wedge and narrowing in daily price fluctua...
  • What If Your Broker Goes Bust?
    By on January 20, 2012 | 327 Comments327 Comments  Comments
    If investing seems harder than it used to, you’re not imagining things. U.S. stocks are down from a decade ago, the gold/silver miners haven’t kept up with the underlying metals, and though Treasury bonds have done pretty well, only a lunatic would count on them going forward. And now that MF Gl...
  • Wednesday Technical Update: Perfectly Balanced
    By on January 19, 2012 | 227 Comments227 Comments  Comments
    Everything is perfectly balanced right now. Resistance is all being tested across pretty much every asset class. There is really no need to add any commentary today but rather show what I mean by a lot of charts. Something is going to give and that day is literally here. You can’t get any closer t...
  • Industrial Production Confirms LEI Changes
    By on January 19, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    For the last several months I have been scratching my head about the Leading Economic Indicator Index (LEI), as published by the Conference Board, due to the divergence between it and other leading indicators that we watch.  The LEI has risen extremely sharply while real indications of the economy ...
  • FAIL: Federal Reserve Attempts To Stimulate Lending
    By on January 18, 2012 | 297 Comments297 Comments  Comments
    Bernanke is trying every way he can to get banks to lend (printing coupled with a multitude of lending facilities and Fed programs). It’s easy enough to prove the printing: Base money supply is up about $1.8 trillion since the start of the recession. The charts below offer a stunning narrative...
  • Tuesday Technical Update: Nice Reversal Day?
    By on January 18, 2012 | 347 Comments347 Comments  Comments
    That was a nice reversal day in the equity market. More so in the futures market where Russell and Mid Cap futures reversed 2% and 1.5% respectively off the session highs into session lows while the ES closed 13 handles off the session high (4PM close, not the 4:15PM). There are a number of chart pa...

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