I hate NFP Friday. The numbers are flakey. There are about 130mm workers. This morning we hear that total jobs increased by 80K. The reported number represents a change of 0.06%. This extraordinarily precise estimate is made based on a survey of only 1/8% of households. The error rate on the calculation is easily +/-250,000. And don’t get me started on the Birth/Death calculation.
Social Security reports income from payroll taxes. The following looks at the September, October and November numbers for 2008 through 2011 (SSA has Nov. 11’ estimate out). You tell me if there is any evidence of improvement.
The three month totals reflect the YoY improvement. But consider the 08 – 11 comparison.
My conclusion looking at the NFP #s versus the SS data is that there may be some jobs being created. But they don’t pay very much. On the whole, we still have not caught up to where we were three years ago.
Images: Flickr (licence attribution)
About The Author – Bruce Krasting
I worked on Wall Street for twenty five years. This blog is my take on the financial issues of the day. I was an FX trader during the early days of the ‘snake’ and the EMS. Derivatives on currencies were new then. I was part of that. That was with Citi. Later I worked for Drexel and got to understand a bit about balance sheet structure and corporate bonds from Mike Milken. I was involved with a Macro hedge fund later. That worked out all right, but it is not an easy road. There was one tough week and I thought, “Maybe I should do something else for a year or two.” That was fifteen years ago. I love the markets. How they weave together. For twenty five years I woke up thinking, “What am I going to do today to make some money in the market”. I don’t do that any longer. But I miss it.