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S&P500 Back In The Green For 2011!

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher 32 Comments32 Comments Comments
    November 16, 2011

    It was a bit of a topsy-turvy day. The financial press found encouragement in their analysis of Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index and the Empire State Index. Nevertheless, the market slumped for the first two hours. But late morning saw a turn-around rally to a 1.0% intraday high of 1.00%, and then a selloff in the final 30 minutes trimmed the gain to 0.48%. That was good enough, however, to put the index back into the green for the year — just barely — at 0.01%. The S&P 500 is 7.76% off the interim high of April 29 and about 14 points below the 200-day moving average.

    From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.9% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.6% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

    Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

     

     

     

     

    For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view ofsecular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

    For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

    These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

     

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution) 

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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