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November 2011 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • EU Armageddon Postponed Until Further Notice?.
    By on November 30, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    European bonds had a good day today. A good day is when nothing blows up. Italy 10-Year Government Bonds  Italy 2-Year Government Bonds  Germany 10-Year Government Bonds  Germany 2-Year Government Bonds  After a brief spurt higher, which sent S&P futures down a percent last evening, Ita...
  • ‘Make Or Break’ Time For Europe.
    By on November 30, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The people buying bonds issued by Italy and Spain are clearly looking past the dysfunctional balance sheets and focusing on Germany’s reluctance to let a major PIIGS country default. So an Italian bond, in the mind of the market, becomes a German bond. But this sword cuts both ways. If European d...
  • Tuesday Technical Review: Credit Markets Diverge.
    By on November 30, 2011 | 317 Comments317 Comments  Comments
    Another day where equity and credit continue to diverge from one another. From treasury yields falling to sovereign debt yields rising to multi year records in EUR basis swaps, sovereign CDS, etc credit is pricing in continued risk to the global economy while equity goes the other direction. At the ...
  • Misplaced Confidence: The Consumer’s Last Gasp.
    By on November 30, 2011 | 48 Comments48 Comments  Comments
    Today the Conference Board released its consumer confidence survey for November which showed a sharp jump in the last month from 40.9 to 56.   This is the highest level of the index since July just prior to the debt ceiling debacle and the surge in the Greek crisis.   Of course, a recovery from ...
  • Housing: The Margin Effect.
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    With each and every report comes “hope” that maybe, potentially, somehow the moribund housing market has finally reached its inevitable bottom and is now on the verge of the next great advance.   Nothing could be further from the truth. I say this with a bit of pain because I am a home...
  • WSJ, Bernanke And Those ‘Fed Tips’.
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Wall Street Journal readers saw the front-page story entitled “Investors Bullish on Fed Tips,” by Susan Pulliam.  The opening discussion was alarming. The story discusses private conversations that took place between Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Nancy Lazar, an economist with International St...
  • Treasuries Yawn As Stock Markets Stage Huge Rally.
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    With the huge rally in Europe and echo rally in the US, one would have expected Treasuries to tumble and yields to rise. But such was not the case. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.97, unchanged from Friday. Despite the equity market mania and press reports of record Black Friday and Cyber ...
  • The Best Stock Market Indicator, Ever?
    By on November 29, 2011 | 449 Comments449 Comments  Comments
    As we all know, the key to successful investing is very simple: “Buy low, sell high.” However, you enter a chaotic, fun-house world of uncertainty once you ponder the logical follow-up question: “When?” Investors desperate to solve this riddle have come up with solutions as v...
  • House Of Horrors: Prices Still Declining In Half Of M...
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The Economist is frequently a mixed bag. Here is an article on the global housing market that pretty much hits the right spot. Please consider House of horrors, part 2 The bursting of the global housing bubble is only halfway through. MANY of the world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 be...
  • Eurozone Changing Rules Mid-Game.
    By on November 29, 2011 | 387 Comments387 Comments  Comments
    Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? The market action suggests that time is indeed running out, and so we’ll look at the likely consequences. Then I glance over the other way and take notice of...
  • Technical Review: The Monday Ramp.
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    When the markets turned on October 4 a lot of things were different versus today yet many traders fail to realize that. Instead they are fearful of another such ramp and determined to get in front of this move. As a friendly reminder to those readers older than six Santa Claus is make believe. The t...
  • The Trend Is Exhausted.
    By on November 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    What is the real problem with today’s market? Watch this excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special, video issue of the August 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter shows you how the buildup of dollar-denominated debt has brought us to what he calls a critical market juncture. Get even more ...
  • Stock Bear Seasonals
    By on November 28, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The general stock markets’ day-to-day price action utterly dominates individual stock sectors, including commodities stocks.  So anything traders can do to better understand the forces driving the stock markets as a whole leads to better stock entries and exits universally.  With this truth in m...
  • Glimpse Into The Future: Stock Market and Dollar
    By on November 27, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The ‘accident’ many have been waiting for has finally happened, and it’s called Europe. That doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market. A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a “solution” to Europe...
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Recession Spiral Moderates
    By on November 27, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.3 in its latest reading, data through November 18. The latest public data point is less negative than last week’s upwardly revised -7.8 (previously -7.9) and continues the trend off its in...
  • Technical Update: Friday Fireworks!
    By on November 26, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    For an abbreviated US equity session that was actually pretty exciting today. Early morning weakness was met with opening bell strength and then a reversal into the close. The ES (SPX futures) once again was the tail trying to wag the dog. In other words if you can get the ES to move perhaps every o...

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