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Market Timing Signals.

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher 46 Comments46 Comments Comments
    September 11, 2011

    Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live posted an interesting article on his website earlier today, Another Domino Falls For The Market. The graphic he featured is the STA (Streettalk Advisors) Intermediate Indicator. The indicator, Lance explained to me, is a 21-34 week Exponential Moving Average crossover in the S&P 500.

     

    What’s interesting about this timing strategy is that it didn’t give any whipsaws last summer (just barely). The 10- and 12-month simple moving averages did (see charts).

    Visualizing Monthly Moving Averages: Percent Above and Below the Signal

    Speaking of the 10- and 12-month SMAs, yesterday a long-time reader, asked about a pair of charts I occasionally featured in connection with the monthly market timing signals I report on at the end of each month. They show the percent above and below the signal for the 10- and 12-month simple moving averages in the S&P 500. So, with a hat-tip to Lyle for the suggestion, here they are again.

     

     

     

     

    Note: I created the two charts above from the historical data available at Yahoo Finance, which splices a few years of S&P 90 data to the S&P 500, which began in March 1957, to give us that round-number 1950 start date.

    From  Market Timing Signals: Miscellaneous Updates.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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