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September 2011 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Cracks Within The Equity Wall.
    By on September 30, 2011 | 50 Comments50 Comments  Comments
    Equities have been in a pure state of denial many bears would believe. On the other hand bulls would believe bears are the ones in denial. One thing both sides can agree upon by looking at almost any chart is that equities continue to diverge from various credit products, sentiment readings, commodi...
  • Breakdown: High-Yield Market Indicator.
    By on September 30, 2011 | 49 Comments49 Comments  Comments
    The price action of high yield funds can be great tools for helping investors and financial professionals in building portfolios, a topic I previously discussed on September 20th. The first chart below illustrates that, over the past decade plus, high yield funds have given quality leading-edge sig...
  • Economy: On The Ropes and Going Down…
    By on September 29, 2011 | 48 Comments48 Comments  Comments
    The risk faced by those who are analyzing macro trends is sounding like a broken record. For those younger readers who have no idea what that phrase means, imagine an mp3 song that will stick on and endlessly repeat a random segment of the song you are listening to until you give your device a shar...
  • Margin Debt Clues To Market Direction.
    By on September 29, 2011 | 53 Comments53 Comments  Comments
    In times of uncertainty, when many fear the sky is falling and that there is no hope for recovery, a prudent investor will begin to look for opportunities.   The problem is getting the timing of those opportunities right.   Lately, there have been a raft of analysts and pundits promoting that th...
  • Wednesday Technical Update.
    By on September 29, 2011 | 42 Comments42 Comments  Comments
    A very nasty day on Wall Street today. It really does appear this time “it is different.” It appears risk is truly perceived differently than when the Fed was more active “facilitating the free market.” It appears forced selling has begun. It appears investors are beginning to make redemptio...
  • Deflation Does Not Discriminate (Junk Bonds Beware!)
    By on September 28, 2011 | 337 Comments337 Comments  Comments
    On September 22, the Dow and S&P opened down over 2.5%. Oil was down, copper was down, and even GOLD was down sharply. Watch this video excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special video issue of the August Elliott Wave Theorist where he explains what is causing diverse markets such as these t...
  • Are Credit Markets Wrong This Time?.
    By on September 28, 2011 | 59 Comments59 Comments  Comments
    Once again credit refuses to follow along with the strategy of hope that equities are using. They refuse to accept proposed and rumored bailouts of Europe. They refuse to accept economic weakness as simply transitory. In fact credit markets are hitting multi decade if not all time lows. Credit marke...
  • Why The Eurozone TARP Will Fail.
    By on September 28, 2011 | 337 Comments337 Comments  Comments
    The Eurozone bailout, now being referred to as Euro TARP, is doomed to fail.  While nothing has been officially announced the markets are rallying broadly on the back of a news article published by CNBC on Monday.  The details are lacking as to the actual structure but speculation is already r...
  • China Cash Crunch Gathers Momentum.
    By on September 28, 2011 | 49 Comments49 Comments  Comments
    Todd Martin, an Asia equity strategist at Societe General SA, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and credit market. Martin also discusses global stocks and commodities. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.”  [youtube width=...
  • Skew Divergence Update.
    By on September 27, 2011 | 385 Comments385 Comments  Comments
    Once again we see divergence between the SPX and the implied volatility skew. In other words Monday’s rally did not quite pass the “smell test.” In fact in really stunk. IV Skew VS SPX Notice the divergence once again which does not support Monday’s rally. One data point is not enough to com...
  • The Euro Once Again.
    By on September 27, 2011 | 46 Comments46 Comments  Comments
    Slow growth is embedding itself solidly into the US economy and the bond mayhem in Europe continues.  The external environment for China is getting worse.  This will almost certainly make China’s adjustment – when Beijing finally gets serious about it – all the more difficult.  With stil...
  • Economic Activity Continues To Deteriorate.
    By on September 26, 2011 | 54 Comments54 Comments  Comments
    According to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August, economic activity weakened, but the three-month moving average does not signal a recession. Here are the opening paragraphs of the report:   Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed Nationa...
  • Technical Update: This Week’s Macro View.
    By on September 25, 2011 | 55 Comments55 Comments  Comments
    Having been on vacation through possibly the most volatile week (yet) of 2011 this week’s macro view may be better served as a recap of various asset classes to get a sense of where the equity market stands right now. From credit to commodities to forex a lot of technical damage was done. First th...
  • Twist Paves the Way for QE III.
    By on September 24, 2011 | 43 Comments43 Comments  Comments
    Earlier this week the Federal Reserve ignited a firestorm in the global markets by admitting that the U.S. economy is facing downside risks. Although it continues to sugar coat the unpleasant reality, never has such a stunningly obvious statement resulted is so much turmoil. Once again we are seei...
  • Netflix Implodes.
    By on September 24, 2011 | 54 Comments54 Comments  Comments
    I am a TV addict, and my kids nagged me forever to get a Netflix subscription. Finally, my son gave me a trial subscription, and they were right, I loved Netflix. A really great service at a reasonable price. Then suddenly they initiated a huge price increase and split their DVD and streaming servi...
  • Weekly Technical Wrap: Bears Chalk-Up Another Win.
    By on September 24, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    That’s a wrap and what a week it was.   As September comes to a close next week it looks as if the bears will chalk up another win.   This past week, and we will cover this more in this weekend’s newsletter,  the market broke out of the upward trending channel that had been develo...

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