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Update: Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar.

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    August 18, 2011

    My last update on the long-term performance of the Dollar, Gold and Silver was posted on April 25th, just four days before the S&P 500 set its interim high (click to view).

    Here now is a fresh look and the world’s reserve currency and the two metals, starting with a 20-year timeline for the Dollar and Gold. Since late April, the Dollar has been in a narrow range with yesterday’s close down 0.2% from our last inspection. Gold, in contrast, has risen 18.59%.

     

     

    What about Silver? It has been more volatile than Gold, but over the same timeframe, it has a nearly identical gain of 18.11%.

     

     

    The next chart starts the timeline in 1980, the earliest date my source, Stockchart.com, supplies data. Gold and Silver data are available across the complete timeline, but the Dollar tracking begins in mid-1983.

     

     

    By starting in 1980, we see the downside of the historic bubble in Silver that peaked on Silver Thursday, March 27, 1980.

     

    Click to View

    Source: www.RealTerm.de via Wikipedia

     

    The circumstances surrounding the 1980 Silver Bubble, nicely summarized in this Investopedia article, were unique in modern history. In nominal terms, Silver is back in the territory of the 1980 bubble, but in real terms, and in light of the global financial distress, precious metals will doubtless remain attractive to many investors.

    What about the Dollar? As of yesterday’s close, the Dollar is down 55% from its 1985 peak. I won’t hazard a forecast as to where it’s headed, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the range of the past two years set the boundaries for the next several months.

    Images: Flickr (licence/attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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