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The Thursday Thrashing.

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher 41 Comments41 Comments Comments
    August 5, 2011

    After a modest one-day rally the S&P 500 selloff returned with a vengeance, falling 4.78% and closing very near the intraday low. The index is 11.99% below the interim high set on April 29, which puts it well into correction territory based on the 10% rule. Today’s thrashing also puts the index back in the red year-to-date, now at -4.58%.

    From an intermediate perspective, the index is 77.4% above the March 2009 closing low and 23.3% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

    Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

     

     

     

     

     

    For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view ofsecular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

    For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

    These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

     

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    Current Market Snapshot.

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