Logo Background RSS

Advertisement

August 2011 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Government Investment Disaster?
    By on August 31, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Solar stocks have been a terrible investment over the past few years. Some of the big public names have been hammered. FSLR = -65% LDK = -88% ESLR = -100% SPWR = -88% Bloomberg had a story today on this. The bottom line: The solar-equipment industry is beginning a consolidation that’s already...
  • Consumer Confidence Does a Swan Dive.
    By on August 31, 2011 | 40 Comments40 Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 18th. The 44.5 reading is significantly below the consensus estimate of 52.0, reported by Briefing.com, and a sharp decline from the July downward revision to 59.2 (from 59.5). H...
  • Great Wall Cracks In China.
    By on August 31, 2011 | 343 Comments343 Comments  Comments
    We have attempted to keep professionals and investors aware of a key flag/pennant pattern in the Shanghai index for almost a year. Back in April the Shanghai index was at the top of the flag pattern and we suggested to “harvest gains” in this commentary. The pattern was suggesting that ...
  • If You Thought August Was Bad…
    By on August 30, 2011 | 34 Comments34 Comments  Comments
    Up until August, this year had been fairly dull as the S&P 500 was in a trading range somewhere between 1250 and 1350. July ended near the upper end of that range and by August 2nd we were once again testing the lower 1250 level. Over the following week the S&P 500 plunged roughly 150 po...
  • Today’s Market Recap.
    By on August 30, 2011 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    Why did markets rip 6.6% in 15 hours? Obviously no one really knows but I would surmise it is a combination of lack of conviction and retail being led to the slaughter house. Zero Hedge put up a great chart of the parabolic rise in short interest at the very same time the SPX was hitting 1,100. This...
  • Calling Bernanke’s Bluff.
    By on August 30, 2011 | 55 Comments55 Comments  Comments
    I do believe this is the most important post I have written to date. Beyond the arrogance of that statement which none is intended I do ask that you take a few extra minutes and “study” this post as it discusses a very important and seldom mentioned funding market that the Fed may have impaired ...
  • Some Predictions For The Rest Of The Decade.
    By on August 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. We are so caught up in n...
  • The Next Recession and Real GDP Per Capita.
    By on August 29, 2011 | 44 Comments44 Comments  Comments
    My monthly updates on GDP and its revisions feature column charts illustrating real GDP. These have the advantage of highlighting the patterns of change and the correlation between negative GDP and recessions. Click for a larger image Real GDP Per-Capita Growth For a better understanding of the his...
  • European Bank Capital-Flight Well Underway.
    By on August 29, 2011 | 39 Comments39 Comments  Comments
    Capital flight from European banks has now reached such a state that for one undisclosed bank needed emergency funding last week for a mere $5 million. Previously, the ECB stepped in to provide $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to non-disclosed banks. As money flees Europe, it lands in US...
  • This Week’s Macro View.
    By on August 28, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    ‘If you build it he will come’. – Field Of Dreams. ‘We built it and he did not show’. – US Economic Reality. The consumer driven recession has begun. Keeping it very simple of the four GDP components (consumer, fixed investment, government and net trade) the con...
  • Is The Fed Willing to Risk Recession?.
    By on August 28, 2011 | 57 Comments57 Comments  Comments
    The Federal Reserve played its part well, along with the Treasury Department, the White House, and Congress, in helping prevent the financial meltdown of 2008-2009 from turning the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007-2009 into the next Great Depression. But its solo intervention with its QE2 quantitative ...
  • Visualizing GDP: Consumer Barely Treading Water.
    By on August 28, 2011 | 285 Comments285 Comments  Comments
    The chart below is my way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. I’ve used a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. My data source for this chart is the Excel file accompanying the BEA...
  • €8 Trillion Problem For European Banks.
    By on August 28, 2011 | 49 Comments49 Comments  Comments
    The Financial Times reports US funds show true state of eurozone banks. Morgan Stanley, calculates that of the €8,000bn funding that is currently in place for the largest 91 eurozone banks, some 58 per cent needs to be rolled over in the next two years. More startling still, some 47 per cent of t...
  • Friday Market Review.
    By on August 28, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    For someone who went into this week net short I am glad to have today behind us. A big cloud of uncertainty was removed and that is the magical hand of the Fed in the equity markets. At least until September 20 when a now two day meeting will be held the Fed made it clear QE is not coming, nor opera...
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 4th Worst on Record
    By on August 28, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final report for August came in at 55.7, a slight improvement over the 54.9 preliminary reading August 12, but this is the 4th lowest monthly final since the inception on the series in 1798. TheBriefing.com consensus expectation was for 55.8. The ...
  • US Follows Japan’s Balance Sheet Recession.
    By on August 27, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
      Director of Research at Paisley Financial, Mario Ricchio, writes on the abject futility of QE during a balance sheet recession. That is where I, and he, believe the US and Japan are right now. See my video take on this from a real estate perspective here. You can download Mr. Ricchio̵...

Advertisement