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Is UK PM Set To Resign Or Will UK Default Come First?.

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    July 19, 2011

    Dramatic developments over recent hours regarding the political and financial stability of the United Kingdom.  According to the intelligence garnered by the folk at Zero Hedge some shocking news is on the way  – the problem is we don’t know which one will come first?.

    What started off as a simple, if very much illegal, information gathering protocol (and yes, NOTW is most certainly not the only organization that hacked voice mails), and has since escalated to an epic shakedown of one of the world’s most legendary media companies in which Murdoch himself now appears on the verge of leaving the company, appears set to ultimately result in a historic parliamentary collapse, with the Prime Minister of the UK David Cameron seen as the ultimate fallguy. As English booking agency reports, “David Cameron’s odds of leaving the Cabinet have been slashed by Ladbrokes. The bookies have taken a steady stream of bets on the PM leaving office with the odds dropping from 100/1 to 20/1 and now 8/1 in a matter of hours.” In other words anyone who bet that the shuttering of the NOTW was merely the first step in the News Corp. scandal and that it would reach as high as the pinnacle of UK leadership, has made a return well over 10 times in the past several days. And yet, as the Economist chimes in with a late night piece, the departure of Cameron at this point is far from certain. Which is arguably a far worse state of affairs: if there is anything the markets hate, it is uncertainty. If Cameron was sure to stay or go, it would have no impact on the UK’s economy and financial markets. As it stands, and with Murdochgate getting worse by the minute, we would not be surprised to see UK CDS follow the US and Germany to multi-year highs, as the UK now openly becomes yet another target for the bond vigilantes who relish precisely this kind of uncertain inbetweenness.

    More from Ladbrokes:

    Only Chris Huhne (2/1) and Andrew Lansley (6/1) are deemed more likely now to quit next leaving the PM joint third favourite with Kenneth Clarke (also 8/1).

    Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “This bears all the hallmarks of a massive public gamble. People up and down the land are queueing out of the door of our shops to back the PM to walk.”

    Ladbrokes latest betting
    Next Cabinet Member to leave

    Dead Heat Rules apply if more than one leave on same day

    Chris Huhne – 2/1
    Andrew Lansley – 6/1
    Kenneth Clarke – 8/1
    David Cameron – 8/1
    Vince Cable – 10/1
    Cheryl Gillan – 10/1

    On the other hand, here is The Economist‘s take:

    It is wrong to argue

    Shared From And Read More Here;

    As David Cameron Resignation Odds Surge From 100/1 To 8/1 In Hours, Is UK Default (And Contagion) Risk Set To Follow? | zero hedge.

    Thumbnail Image: Flickr (licence details)