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July 2011 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • The Recession That Won’t Quit.
    By on July 31, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Boy does the economy stink!  The GDP report from the BEA was about as bad as it could get. I think the economy is rapidly approaching stall speed. The insanity in D.C. has already put an additional damper on the prospects for the future. Many places that I read jumped on the BEA data and conclude...
  • An Update On Seasonality.
    By on July 30, 2011 | 40 Comments40 Comments  Comments
    There are a number of seasonal patterns, ranging all the way from the very short-term tendency for a ‘countertrend’ move an hour or so after the market opens each day, to the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, and even to the 17 to 20-year ‘secular bull/secular bear cycle. We’re currently in the...
  • Is Gold A Sure Thing?.
    By on July 30, 2011 | 51 Comments51 Comments  Comments
    With global politicians (and a great many of their constituents) unable to come to grips with impossible levels of debt and spending, it seems that gold is an easy and certain way to hedge against the disaster that seems unavoidable. The logic seems perfect, and it is reinforced many times daily by...
  • A Blessing Not To Raise Debt Ceiling.
    By on July 29, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    As the chances of a gaseous Congressional compromise to do nothing about deficit reduction grow larger, inquiring minds wonder just what might happen if nothing passes. Contrary to popular belief, the US would not default. Troops would still be paid. Medicare and Medicaid would not stop. The Biparti...
  • Debt Ceiling Dilemma: The Foul Choice Facing Investor...
    By on July 29, 2011 | 332 Comments332 Comments  Comments
    For the record, I still believe that there will not be a breach of the debt ceiling and no overt default for the US. Things will be worked out in the nick of time, like they always are. However, the media is full of articles wondering about what ‘investors’ might do in response to a US default...
  • Ominous Similarities.
    By on July 28, 2011 | 28 Comments28 Comments  Comments
    Dramatic title I realize but look at the charts below and ask yourself if this is purely coincidence or something more telling. Regulars to this site have read posts comparing the current market to that of late 2007. From equities to credit markets to volatility and more the similarities across ass...
  • IV Skew Update.
    By on July 26, 2011 | 2 Comments2 Comments  Comments
    I continue to study the IV skew and wanted to share a few interesting charts showing how well it correlates with the SPX. I prefer to view the skew relative to the vix (referred to as divergence throughout this post) as it appears far more correlated to the SPX versus on its own. For those new to th...
  • Indecision Indicates Big Move Brewing…
    By on July 26, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Every year millions of investors continue to have their hard-earned investment gains wiped out by decisions based on hope. And the biggest problems causing this is simply that most investors are not armed with a complete toolbox to make the right decisions, and or worse still – they are payi...
  • Credit Markets Signal Weakening Economy.
    By on July 24, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The credit markets are screaming economic weakness. Below are various credit facilities that cannot be ignored. 5 Year Interest Rate Swaps: Simply stated a measure of demand to convert an adjustable rate commercial loan to a fixed rate (nothing to do with home mortgage). The lower the swap rate th...
  • PMO Buy Signal: Financial SPDR (XLF)
    By on July 24, 2011 | 490 Comments490 Comments  Comments
    In our ETF Tracker Daily Report, which tracks over 90 index and sector ETFs, there is a section that tracks the status of PMO buy and sell signals for these securities. This section is sorted by signal, with the newest signals listed at the top. These are mechanical signals, but you have to look at ...
  • Global Markets Are Still Sliding.
    By on July 22, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    In the U.S., almost 150,000 new jobs must be created each month to handle new young people coming into the labor force. For several months the economic recovery had come along well enough that that was being accomplished. But economists were shocked when only 25,000 jobs were created in May, and eve...
  • Exposing China’s Mysterious Shadow Banking Syst...
    By on July 20, 2011 | 449 Comments449 Comments  Comments
    Precisely a year ago, a summary report by Fitch shone the first, if relatively weak, light on the massive Chinese securitization industry which had for years allowed the country to fund its housing bubble without forcing the banks to actually take much if any of the loan risk associated with this un...
  • European Bank Stress Test: “It’s not that...
    By on July 20, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The European Banking Authority announced Friday that 8 banks had failed their stress tests and 16 more had narrowly passed. But the results drew much criticism from analysts, who said that the stress test is not strict enough. Indeed, this is something that European Financial Forecast readers have...
  • Is UK PM Set To Resign Or Will UK Default Come First?...
    By on July 19, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Dramatic developments over recent hours regarding the political and financial stability of the United Kingdom.  According to the intelligence garnered by the folk at Zero Hedge some shocking news is on the way  – the problem is we don’t know which one will come first?. What started off...
  • Contagion To Set Alight United Kingdom?.
    By on July 19, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    According to the folks over at Zero Hedge, who seem to be able to somehow sniff out these imminent disasters sometimes months in advance have just discovered that the European contagion may well be about to set alight in the UK, starting at Loyds PLC.  This of course would be a disaster of markets ...
  • New Financial Mania: Peak Debt Bubble
    By on July 17, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Trying to induce inflation to reduce accumulated debt is not a modern invention.  Dr. Carmen Reinhart and Dr. Kenneth Rogoff trace this kind of financial crisis and others back to the Dionysius of Syracuse during the 4th century.  The debasement of currency also occurred in the Roman empire and B...

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