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It was just about a month ago that the market had given up all of its gains for the year. And now in just over a month, the S&P 500 has gained 13.3% from i...

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  • Typical Annual Return For The Market In One Month!
    By on November 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It was just about a month ago that the market had given up all of its gains for the year. And now in just over a month, the S&P 500 has gained 13.3% from its low on October 15, and so is up 12.1% for the year. Hurray! Yahoo! The market’s favorable season and our buy signal is off to a great s...
  • Pressures On US Economy Just Increased
    By on November 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have been suggesting that the U.S. economy would likely be unable to meet current estimates of sustained and robust economic growth of 3% or more due to the global slowdown. Despite ongoing Central Bank interventions, the deflationary pressures in the Eurozone and Japan are likely to flow back to ...
  • GLD and Gold’s Selloff
    By on November 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has suffered a rough couple of months, getting pounded below major support.  One driver was stock-market capital flowing out of gold again, as evidenced by renewed differential selling pressure seen in gold-ETF shares.  But this was minor compared to last year’s, despite extreme bearish sen...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Rising Risk
    By on November 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There are things going on with the financial markets currently that seem just a bit “out of balance.” For example, asset prices are rising against a backdrop of global weakness, deflationary pressures and rising valuations. More importantly, there is a rising divergence between sentiment...
  • Still Lower Oil Prices Ahead
    By on November 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further. In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.1, down from the previous week’s 132.5. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.8, down from -2.1 the previous week. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its...
  • Several Bullish Supports Suggest Bears Should Temper ...
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s always a good idea to periodically take a look at what the foreign community is doing in terms of net US equity purchases. The reason lies in the fact that they tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms and can serve as a contrary indicator. We saw this not only in the 2000 and 2007 bull ma...
  • Inflation Chronicles, Part I: Art Prices So High, Cro...
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Depending on which expert is talking, the world is either falling into a deflationary abyss or launching an inflationary moonshot. What’s truly weird and fascinating is that they’re both right. The mountain of debt taken on in the past few decades exerts a profoundly deflationary pull on the eco...
  • The Return Of The Dollar
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More ...
  • Contemplating Stocks Without QE
    By on November 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Some influences on the stock market are casual, subtle or open to interpretation, but the catalyst behind the current stock market rally really shouldn’t be controversial. As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it. A larger version of th...
  • Why Rising US Dollar Could Destabilize Global Financi...
    By on November 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have been suggesting for several years that the U.S. Dollar would confound those anticipating its demise by starting a long secular uptrend. In early September I made the case for a rising U.S. dollar, based on the basic supply and demand for dollars stemming from four dynamics: Demand for dollars...
  • Disturbing Comparison: Corporate Profit Margins versu...
    By on November 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday’s collection of Advisor Perspectives articles particularly caught my attention: Why Jeremy Grantham is Right about Corporate Profit Margins by Baijnath Ramraika and Prashant Trivedi. The article includes a number of fascinating graphs, the first of which is a snapshot of US Corporate...

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