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My concerns about high market valuations, excessive investor euphoria, the Fed eliminating its QE stimulus, growing economic woes in euro-land and so forth, bec...

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  • Can Fed Come To Rescue Again If Needed?
    By on October 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    My concerns about high market valuations, excessive investor euphoria, the Fed eliminating its QE stimulus, growing economic woes in euro-land and so forth, became more serious when my firm’s technical indicators triggered a sell signal on July 31. As readers know, we had been cautious, expecting ...
  • Regression to Trend: A Perspective on Long-Term Marke...
    By on October 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of September the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 89% above its long-term trend, up from 85% above trend the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pat...
  • Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clue...
    By on October 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    My monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with normal business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rat...
  • The Market In Pictures: Deterioration
    By on October 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Roughly every six months or so I do a chart analysis of the markets primarily focused around macro indicators of valuation, complacency, and leverage. However, recent market action needs to be addressed with respect to the deterioration of market internals. Despite the ongoing debate being waged on...
  • US Dollar Super-Overbought!
    By on October 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The US dollar has relentlessly blasted higher in recent months, achieving its longest consecutive-week rally in history.  Speculators have flooded into the world’s reserve currency for a variety of reasons, ranging from Federal Reserve rate-hike hopes to festering Eurozone worries.  But the resu...
  • Put Call Ratio Higher Than 2008 Lehman Collapse?
    By on October 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The rising fear may reflect a shift in sentiment from faith in the omnipotence of central banks to skepticism. By at least one well-known measure of sentiment, the level of fear in the stock market now exceeds the fear triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Lehman declared b...
  • Serious Financial Trouble Erupts In Germany And Japan
    By on October 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There are some who believe that the next great financial crash will not begin in the United States.  Instead, they are convinced that a financial crisis that begins in Europe or in Japan (or both) will end up spreading across the globe and take down the U.S. too.  Time will tell if they are ultima...
  • Market Volatility: Octobers In The Dow
    By on October 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Anyone who follows the mainstream financial press is seeing an increasing number of articles about bear market risk. Today’s Bloomberg guest piece by Barry Ritholtz is a classic example: Signs of a Bull Market Turning Bear. The growth in investor anxiety is happening in October, historically t...
  • The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update
    By on October 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It’s a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, th...
  • Gold Bug Set To Bite Back
    By on October 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Since hitting a record high of $1921.50 per ounce in September 2011, gold prices have erased 30% in value. By the end of day on October 3, 2014, gold prices were circling the drain of a 15-month low.After such devastation, the global community of gold analysts, advisors and investors finds itself sc...
  • The Statistical Recovery Continues
    By on October 13, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Earlier this month investors awoke to news that, according to the U.S. Labor Department, employers added 248,000 jobs last month. In addition, job numbers for previous months were revised upward, and the jobless rate fell to 5.9% from August’s 6.1%. These numbers had the mainstream media cheer...
  • The Soaring Dollar Debate: Good, Bad, Ugly
    By on October 12, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The dollar is on a tear. And the world is scrambling to figure out what it means. Beginning with the always-interesting Martin Armstrong in a recent Financial Sense interview: “I know a lot of people that hate the dollar, but you have to understand the dollar is really only the game in town. Yes...

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