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Is China really growing at the reported 7.5% rate? I have frequently stated “no chance”. Malinvestments in housing, vacant cities, vacant malls, and...

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  • China: The Recovery On Paper
    By on July 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Is China really growing at the reported 7.5% rate? I have frequently stated “no chance”. Malinvestments in housing, vacant cities, vacant malls, and roads with no traffic prove the point. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets reiterates that view in regards to credit expansion and GD...
  • Hoisington Investment Management: Quarterly Review an...
    By on July 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for ourQuarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury...
  • How To Find Opportunities In The Currency Markets
    By on July 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens recorded this 18-minute interview on July 18. Jim, a conservative trader, likes to trade in the direction of the trend. In the interview, he uses an example in the Euro to explain how a trader can join the trend once a move ha...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on July 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.2, down from the previous week’s 136.2. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) slipped to 4.5 to 4.2. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its recession call on ...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Yellen Talk
    By on July 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This past week, Chairwoman Janet Yellen presented the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congressional Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. While the financial markets were closely focused on clues as to the future direction of monetary policy and rate hi...
  • Will Investors Get Out On Time This Time?.
    By on July 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It is normal and understandable that investor confidence grows as paper profits in a long rally or bull market pile up. It’s therefore normal and inevitable that investor sentiment will be at its most bullish for that cycle by the time a rally or bull market tops out. However, it is also true that...
  • End of QE First Victims: Small Cap Stocks and Junk Bo...
    By on July 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Summary: Small cap stocks have underperformed large cap stocks by nearly 10% this year Junk bonds are also underperforming investment grade bonds Contracting margin debt associated with weakness in riskier areas of the market Coming end of QE and first Fed rate hiking coming into view calls for inv...
  • Stocks Will Rise and 3 Trades You Can’t Make!
    By on July 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I wrote recently that stocks spend 5% of their time hitting new highs while the other 95% of the time has been making up previous losses.  This is shown in the chart below. I make this point as I saw a flashing banner across the bottom of the TV screen stating the markets have hit 14 new highs...
  • They’re Lying To Us, Part IV: Fake Pensions
    By on July 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Most people learn by the age of 10 or so that making promises is easier than keeping them. That’s why really big promises like corporate pensions and national retirement/health care programs are so easy to screw up. Offering someone a cushy retirement or a lifetime of healthcare feels great and ge...
  • Is Yellen Being Misled By Employment Statistics?
    By on July 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, Chairwoman Janet Yellen presented the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congressional Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. While the financial markets were closely focused on clues as to the future direction of monetary policy and rate hikes ...
  • SPX Highs A Fed Illusion
    By on July 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The surreal US stock markets have continued melting up in recent months, spurred ever higher by the Federal Reserve’s money printing and jawboning.  The resulting record highs in the headline indexes have been widely trumpeted by Wall Street as evidence of a strong secular bull underway, with yea...
  • Why Coming Crash Is Simply Normalization Of Mispriced...
    By on July 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The correlation between the Fed’s monetary heroin production and the stock market will break down as the market normalizes. In the spirit of calling things what they are, longtime correspondent Harun I. explains that market crashes are simply distorted/mispriced economies attempting to normal...

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