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Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowne...

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  • The Housing Bubble Is Back (And Bigger Than Ever Befo...
    By on April 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowners stopped refinancing their mortgages. But now he’s back to being happily swamped because instead of refinancing, everyone is buying — ...
  • Gold-Stock-Bull Upside Targets
    By on April 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market.  Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators.  Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly la...
  • Technically Speaking: Oversold Bounce Or Return Of Th...
    By on April 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s missive, “Markets Go On Alert,” I stated that due to the oversold condition of the market on a very short-term basis, a rally was due this week. To wit: “IMPORTANT: By the time weekly signals are issued on an intermediate-term basis, the market is generally oversold, ...
  • Gold-Stock Breakouts Near
    By on April 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors.  A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment.  That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-m...
  • Technically Speaking: Leverage Hits An All-Time High!
    By on April 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    As the first quarter of 2017 closes, April begins the last leg of the markets “seasonally strong” period of the year, which is where the idea of “Sell In May And Go Away” comes from. And, of course, every year, there is always a litany of articles written about why it is such a bad idea, yo...
  • Soaring Global Debt Sets Stage For Unprecedented Priv...
    By on April 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The UK’s Telegraph just published an analysis of global debt that pretty much sums up the coming crisis. Here’s an excerpt with a couple of the more hair-raising charts: Global debt explodes at ‘eye-watering’ pace to hit £170 trillion Global debt has climbed at an “eye-watering” pace o...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on April 12, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Gold in Fed-Rate-Hike Cycles 2
    By on April 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold suffered heavy selling in early March leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike.  Speculators frantically dumped gold futures ahead of the Fed’s meeting as implied rate-hike odds soared.  This is nothing new.  This key group of traders has long feared Fed-rate-hike cycles, convinced they a...
  • Maybe The Recovery Wasn’t Real After All
    By on April 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking through the Fed’s 2% target, and most measures of consumer sentiment were bordering on euphoric. Then it all started to evaporate. Lackluster manufacturin...
  • Why This Market Needs To Crash!
    By on March 31, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Like an old vinyl record with a well-worn groove, the needle skipping merrily back to the same track over and over again, we repeat: Today’s markets are dangerously overpriced. Being market fundamentalists who don’t believe it’s possible to simply print prosperity out of thin air, we’ve ...
  • Technically Speaking: Beware The Ides Of March
    By on March 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The month of March typically marks the beginning of Spring. This weekend will also mark the loss of an hour of sleep as we set our clocks forward an hour in observance of daylight savings time. As we will discuss momentarily, the month of March begins following an unseasonably warm winter period tha...
  • This Region Of The World Is Being Hit By The Worst Ec...
    By on March 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
      The ninth largest economy in the entire world is currently experiencing “its longest and deepest recession in recorded history”, and in a country right next door people are being encouraged to label their trash so that the thousands upon thousands of desperately hungry people that are di...
  • The World’s Most Deceptive Chart!
    By on March 15, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I received an email last week which I thought was worth discussing. “I just found your site and began reading the backlog of posts on the importance of managing risk and avoiding draw downs. However, the following chart would seem to counter that argument. In the long-term, bear markets seem harm...
  • Weekend Reading | Trump’s Rocket Ride
    By on March 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I have a simple question… If the rally in the market that began following the election was pricing in the expectations for tax reforms, repatriation, building the wall, and infrastructure spending, then what did the rally on Wednesday following Trump’s speech to Congress price in? With the mar...
  • Market Top? | Second Dumbest Money Pouring Into Stock...
    By on March 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the traditional signs of market tops is individual investors finally succumbing to the lure of apparently easy money and pouring their savings into the stock market. In the past this dumb money flowed into equity mutual funds in general. But today it’s favoring exchange traded funds (ETFs) ...
  • Market Remains Overvalued…
    By on March 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...

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