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“It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.” – Pater ...

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  • 5 Things To Ponder: “Bear-ly” Extant
    By on September 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    “It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.” – Pater Tenebrarum That quote got me thinking about the dearth of bearish views that are currently prevalent in the market. The chart below shows th...
  • Last Stand Approaching For Gold
    By on September 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold ended its 10-year bull market in 2011 when it topped out at $1,900 an ounce. It was a spectacular run from $250 an ounce in 2001. Since then it rallied back several times only to have those rallies fail at lower highs. Its most recent rally attempt, beginning in January, looked to have a better...
  • For 90% Of Americans There Has Been No Recovery
    By on September 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes. The 2013 survey confirms statements I have made previously regarding the Fed’s monetary interventions leaving the majority of Americans b...
  • The Perfect (Dollar) Storm: When Currencies Collide P...
    By on September 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In October 1991 developments were in motion to create what Bob Case, then deputy meteorologist for the National Weather Service, called “the perfect storm,” which rocked the northeast and sank the Andrea Gail and its six crew members. A book was written about the storm in 1997 and a movie follow...
  • World Growth vs Copper. Iron-Ore At 5 Year Lows.
    By on September 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Copper is frequently cited as a leading indicator of economic activity because of its widespread use in many sectors of the economy, from homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission. For that reason, some call it “Dr. Copper“. Inquiring minds may be wonder...
  • Full Frontal Inflation
    By on September 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    By now it’s an article of faith within the sound money community that most major countries have borrowed so much that they’re left with only two options: default on their debt through mass-bankruptcy and a new Great Depression, or inflate it away through stepped-up currency creation. This is an ...
  • An Independent Scotland?
    By on September 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The United States is just starting to think about the upcoming elections (for whatever reason, the vast majority of people don’t focus on politics until after Labor Day), but there is another election happening “over the pond,” where the polls have just made everybody do a double-take. I am of...
  • Cause and Effect?
    By on September 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    You may have seen that the recent revision to second quarter 2014 GDP came in at 4.2%. This is the third largest quarter over quarter growth rate number in the current economic cycle. Of course we need to remember this follows on the heels of a 2.1% contraction in the first quarter. If we average th...
  • China: How The Boom Unravels, One Person At A Time
    By on September 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The dashing of youthful expectations of open-ended wealth and security for everyone with a college degree is highly combustible when combined with a popping real estate bubble and systemic corruption. Those enamored of China’s ability to build empty apartments, empty malls and empty train stat...
  • The 7 Deadly Sins Of Investing
    By on September 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have often written about the emotional and psychological factors that inhibit long-term investment performance (most recently here). Despite repeated studies that suggest investors should just buy “passive index” funds and “hold on” until eternity, the reality is that it si...
  • Was The Market’s Down Week Of Any Importance?
    By on September 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The market’s winning streak paused this week. It confirmed the short-term sell signal triggered by our technical indicators. But is it of any importance beyond the short-term? It probably depends on where we are in the investor sentiment market cycle, and when we get the next short-term buy sign...
  • Market Cap to GDP: The Buffett Valuation Indicator
    By on September 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In response to several requests, I’ve updated this valuation indicator to include Second Estimate of Q2 GDP.   Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview tha...

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