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In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact that despite the bullish “exuberance” of market participants, the underlying internal deteriorati...

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  • Technically Speaking: Bulls Struggle With Bearish Int...
    By on May 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact that despite the bullish “exuberance” of market participants, the underlying internal deterioration has continued. To wit: “Furthermore, the underlying internals have continued to weaken over the last week which has remained a concern ...
  • You’d Think We’d Be A Little More Worried…
    By on May 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    By now everyone with an Internet connection is aware of the “ransomware” attack that shut down hundreds of thousands of computers over the weekend. The fact that the onslaught is just beginning — as the military-grade hacking tools developed by the NSA and recently leaked are weaponized by hac...
  • Is This Bitcoin’s Fatal Flaw?
    By on May 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Bitcoin has been rocketing higher lately, as it gains widespread official approval and more people figure out how to use it. As the first of its kind to emerge, bitcoin has become synonymous with “cryptocurrency”. But lately it’s been joined by a lot of others – which together now account f...
  • Technically Speaking: Market In Confusion
    By on May 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact this market has been “nothing short of boring” as of late, but remains on a “bullish buy signal” currently. To wit: “Importantly, the ‘buy’ signal that was registered in late April is very close to tripping a short-term sell s...
  • Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Val...
    By on May 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: This update incorporates the latest monthly close and the GDP Q1 Advance Estimate data. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on May 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Gold-Futures Shorting Attacks
    By on May 14, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has suffered a sharp pullback over the past couple weeks, stoking much bearish sentiment.  While a variety of factors fed this selloff, the precipitating catalyst was a gold-futures shorting attack.  These are relatively-rare episodes of extreme selling specifically timed and executed to mani...
  • Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News...
    By on May 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Something extraordinarily good for junior precious metals miners just happened. But for some reason it’s being misinterpreted as a bad thing. Here’s the general story: A Small-Cap Gold Mining ETF Streaks Lower As Big Index Change Looms (Investors.com) – Mining stocks blazed a bright trail of ...
  • Gold Upleg Momentum Building
    By on April 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal.  Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them.  This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, p...
  • The Housing Bubble Is Back (And Bigger Than Ever Befo...
    By on April 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowners stopped refinancing their mortgages. But now he’s back to being happily swamped because instead of refinancing, everyone is buying — ...
  • Gold-Stock-Bull Upside Targets
    By on April 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market.  Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators.  Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly la...
  • Technically Speaking: Oversold Bounce Or Return Of Th...
    By on April 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s missive, “Markets Go On Alert,” I stated that due to the oversold condition of the market on a very short-term basis, a rally was due this week. To wit: “IMPORTANT: By the time weekly signals are issued on an intermediate-term basis, the market is generally oversold, ...
  • Gold-Stock Breakouts Near
    By on April 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors.  A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment.  That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-m...
  • Technically Speaking: Leverage Hits An All-Time High!
    By on April 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    As the first quarter of 2017 closes, April begins the last leg of the markets “seasonally strong” period of the year, which is where the idea of “Sell In May And Go Away” comes from. And, of course, every year, there is always a litany of articles written about why it is such a bad idea, yo...
  • Soaring Global Debt Sets Stage For Unprecedented Priv...
    By on April 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The UK’s Telegraph just published an analysis of global debt that pretty much sums up the coming crisis. Here’s an excerpt with a couple of the more hair-raising charts: Global debt explodes at ‘eye-watering’ pace to hit £170 trillion Global debt has climbed at an “eye-watering” pace o...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on April 12, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...

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