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This morning’s Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range v...

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  • SPX Snapshot: Modest Loss Follows Jackson Hole Drama
    By on August 27, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This morning’s Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today’s session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 ...
  • 3 Things: $4 Trillion QE, VIX Update, Wage Warning
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Just recently, David Reifschneider, deputy director of the division of research and statistics for the Federal Reserve board in Washington, D.C., released a staff working paper entitled “Gauging The Ability Of The FOMC To Respond To Future Recessions.”  The conclusion was simply this: “Simul...
  • Big Policies, Bigger Failures…
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to “corr...
  • Existing Home Sales: Lose Momentum in July, YoY Negat...
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday morning’s release of the July Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units from 5.57 million in June. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.51 million. The latest number represents a 3.2% decrease from the previous ...
  • Hedge Fund Myths & Facts
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    “Genius hedge fund manager delivers alpha in good times and bad through stellar long and short stock picking, makes prescient market calls, thrives on market volatility and (unlike mutual fund managers) is perfectly aligned with their investors. WealthManagement.com (http://wealthmanagement.com) h...
  • Changing Culture: Gasoline Sales and Demographics
    By on August 24, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-June, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the ...
  • Technically Speaking: Volatility & The Bond Bull...
    By on August 24, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, I covered the extremely low levels of volatility in the market and the building potential for a snap back reversal which would likely coincide with a decline in the market. To wit: “The level of ‘complacency’ in the market has simply gotten to an extreme that rarely lasts long. The...
  • Bulls, Bears & The Broken Clock Syndrome
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This is a statement that is often thrown out during rising bull markets by the inherently optimistic crowd. However, such a statement really points to the ignorance of those that make such a claim. Why? Because if the “bears” are right twice a day, then the “bulls,” logically speaking, are w...
  • Weekend Reading: Valuation Challenged
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As another week comes to a close, we continue to wrestle with a market that remains detached from underlying economic data and clings to recent levels of over overbought, overextended and low reward/risk outcomes. Of course, in the final stages of a bull market, this is what has historically been t...
  • Gold Miners: Q2,16 Fundamentals
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed this year as investors started returning to this long-abandoned sector.  Many have tripled, quadrupled, or even quintupled since mid-January alone!  But are such epic gains fundamentally justified?  Much insight into this crucial question for investors c...
  • Liquidity Trapped! The Fed’s Policy Nightmare
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, we got the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. Not surprisingly, we see a Fed just as confused as ever as to what monetary policy actions should be taken. To wit: FED OFFICIALS SPLIT IN JULY ON WHETHER RATE HIKE NEEDED SOON A COUPLE FED OFFICIALS BACKED JULY RATE HIKE...
  • Rates, LEI & Hopes Of Economic Growth
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The domestic economic growth story took a beating in the first half of this year with an average growth rate of just 1%. For the seventh year running, the data has dashed the hopes of an economic resurgence by the Fed and the vast majority of mainstream economists. Unfortunately, this smidgen of...
  • Marc Faber Issues A Stunning Warning That A Gigantic ...
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Are we about to witness one of the largest stock market crashes in U.S. history?  Swiss investor Marc Faber is the publisher of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report”, and he has been a regular guest on CNBC for years.  And even though U.S. stocks have been setting new record high after new recor...
  • US Treasury Yields Go Negative Everywhere But Here
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Negative interest rates are an existential threat for insurance companies, pension funds and other financial entities that need positive investment returns to survive. As rates on government bonds have gone negative in Europe and Japan, the above companies have been big buyers of US Treasury bonds, ...
  • It’s Only Like This, Until It’s Like That
    By on August 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It is not surprising that after one of the longest cyclical bull markets in history that individuals are ebullient about the long-term prospects of investing. The ongoing interventions by global Cental Banks have led to T.I.N.A. (There Is No Alternative) which has become a pervasive, and “Pavl...
  • Technically Speaking: A Bull Market In Complacency
    By on August 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    On Monday, the markets hit new “all-time highs.” That’s the good news. The bad news is that such is occurring on a rapid decline in volume as shown in the chart below. While volume by itself is not a great indicator from which to manage money by, it does lend credence to the level of partici...

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