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The US stock markets just suffered an extraordinary plunge, shocking traders out of their complacency psychosis.  This cast the foundational premise behind rec...

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  • Fed’s Stock Levitation Failing
    By on August 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets just suffered an extraordinary plunge, shocking traders out of their complacency psychosis.  This cast the foundational premise behind recent years’ incredible stock-market levitation into serious doubt.  Traders are finally starting to question whether central banks can ind...
  • Where Does the Market Go From Here?
    By on August 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The risk is that we have all of a sudden a very quick and sharp decline because what happened in China resembles in some degree what happened in the late-1990s in Asia… If the markets realize that this could be a big problem, we could have a big wave of selling.” Felix Zulauf speaking to...
  • Panic
    By on August 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The typical Dow stock now trades for 15.5x this year’s earnings and 14.0x next year. Not cheap, but no longer the 18x earnings we had with the Dow at +18,000. Dividend yields – and every Dow company has a quarterly payout – are 2.3% on the average versus 2.13% for the 10 Year Treasury. Bottom ...
  • China: First Freefall. Then Panic. Now What?
    By on August 26, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    How does the Chinese market meltdown fit into Asia BIG Elliott wave picture? By Elliott Wave International Yes, China has crashed. But what about the big picture? Learn more in this new interview with Chris Carolan, Elliott Wave International’s Global Opportunities Expert and recipient of th...
  • Gold Juniors’ Strong Financials
    By on August 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The smaller gold miners and explorers have suffered catastrophic stock-price losses in recent years.  These extreme declines have led investors and speculators to assume that much of this sector won’t survive lower prevailing gold prices.  But nothing could be farther from the truth.  The hated...
  • All Bubbles Are Different…
    By on August 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Let me throw something at you to ponder for a moment. “Stock market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.” I know. I know. That statement borders on the verge of heresy but let me explain. If stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biase...
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet
    By on August 18, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    If you have been reading my commentaries for very long, you are already aware that I live in Houston, Texas which is the energy capital of the world. While the Houston economy has transformed since the “oil bust” in the 80’s, do not be misled about the importance of energy as a cri...
  • Gold Miners’ $1200 Cost Fallacy
    By on August 17, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The entire gold-mining sector was crushed last month, suffering a full-blown panic.  This was triggered by an extreme shorting attack on gold by American futures speculators.  As fear-blinded traders rushed for the gold-stock exits, they claimed their selling was rational because gold miners’ ve...
  • 3 Warnings For Market Bulls
    By on August 9, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There is a very interesting podcast at Financial Sense with Richard Dickson, who is the Senior Market Strategist at Lowry Research. The reason that this particular interview is so interesting is that Lowry Research has been one of the primary supports for Jeff Saut’s uber bullish view on the ...
  • Gold’s Artificial Lows
    By on August 8, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    With gold languishing near deep secular lows, its technicals look hopelessly broken.  Sentiment is off-the-charts bearish, with traders universally convinced gold is doomed to spiral lower indefinitely.  But gold’s weakness this year is very deceiving, as it wasn’t the product of global fundam...
  • One of the Most Useful Reports About Markets You Will...
    By on August 7, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Consider this July 23 Reuters headline: GM earnings more than doubles on U.S. truck demand Suppose you had the news about GM’s earnings a day in advance. Would you have gone long the market? If you had, you’d have been on the wrong side of the trend. U.S. stock indexes finished lower o...
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap?
    By on August 6, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Po...
  • Market Cap to GDP: The Buffett Valuation Indicator Re...
    By on August 3, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    This update incorporates the Advance Estimate of Q2 GDP and the BEA’s annual revision, which impacts the previous three years. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine...
  • Gold’s Amazing Resiliency
    By on August 3, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has certainly had a rough summer, facing withering selling pressure from record futures shorting.  The resulting new secular lows have greatly exacerbated the already-extreme bearish psychology long plaguing this metal.  But considering the howling headwinds gold has suffered in recent years,...
  • Expert That Correctly Called Last Two Stock Market Cr...
    By on August 1, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    What I am about to share with you is quite stunning.  A well-respected financial expert that correctly predicted the last two stock market crashes is now warning that we are right on the verge of the next one.  John Hussman is a former professor of economics and international finance at the Unive...
  • Technically Speaking: A Sellable Rally
    By on July 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. This commentary also updates the more detailed analysis and allocation model provided weekly in the X-Factor Repo...

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